Chinese Schools Essay

Chinese prepares look at come a long steering since the colonial days. Over the years and with the evolution of the topic pedagogy brass, Chinese schools aim had to face countless threats to their survival. scorn this, Chinese schools have gained popularity and have enjoyed high enrolments, even among non-Chinese students. It has been reported that at to the lowest degree 10 pct of students packing in Chinese schools come from non-Chinese backgrounds. A number of factors hold to this growing phenomenon. First, Chinese schoolteachers are well known for their high level of commitment.For this and other reasons, students from Chinese schools often excel in public examinations peculiarly in lore and Mathematics. The other attraction of Chinese schools is that students are compulsory to learn an additional voice communication, Mandarin, which is a highly marketable skill in the job market. Chinese preceptal activity A Historical Perspective The beginnings of Chinese prec ept in Malaysia can be traced to the early nineteenth century. It was enter that by 1815, there were already three Chinese schools in Malacca. hotshot was founded by the London Missionary Society.With impact to the other two, sociologist Yang Qinghuang suggests that at least oneness would be a school founded by the Hokkien people. Scholar Zheng Liangshu suggests that almost old-type Chinese schools ability have existed in the Straits Settlements since the end of the 18th century. For a long time, Chinese schools in the Straits Settlements received uncomplete help from the British presidential term nor assistance from the government in China. in spite of this, they expatiated funded mainly by clan and dialect associations.When faced with political and pecuniary difficulties at the turn of the twentieth century, the Ching government of China change overd its attitude towards afield Chinese and began to enhance Chinese education outside of China. It implemented educatio nal reforms based on a proposal by Zhang Zidong. Following the reforms, the computer programme was revised to include Chinese Classical Literature, History, Geography, Mathematics, Moral learning, Physical exploitation and other optional subjects like Commerce and Drawing.In Malaya, Chung Hwa Confucian schooltime in Penang not only adopted this cutting curriculum (it was the first-year to do so), it went further to include English as a subject. harbor from the Ching government, however, was short lived. It ended with the fall of the dynasty. Chinese schools that attempted to run freshistic educational programmes (with a modern curriculum and incorporating English as a subject) faced enormous challenges. On the one hand, they were constantly in requisite of more(prenominal) funds.On the other hand, they lacked competent teachers. Furthermore, they had to compete with the more realised English schools. Even so, there were five hundred Chinese schools with modern education al programmes established in Malaya and Singapore in 1920. By this time, textbooks for these schools had deceased from the classical into the vernacular Chinese language (baihuawen). Because of their impressive growth, the British government decided that it could no longer afford to ignore Chinese schools.On 29 October 1920, it introduced the Regist ration of School commandment to restrict the activities of Chinese schools in the Straits Settlements and Federated Malay States by way of registration and inspection. In 1935, control was further tightened textbooks and teachers from China were prohibited. Only local materials and Malaysian-born teachers were allowed, and activities in Chinese schools came chthonic strict scrutiny. Despite these challenges, Chinese education continued to thrive until it was suspended at the time of the Japanese Occupation of Malaya.After the war, Chinese schools resumed operation. By 1946, their number had ballooned to more than one thousand in Malay a. However, followers the Barnes and Fenn-Wu Reports (June 1951) and the Education Ordinance 1952, Chinese education was exclude d from the national education system. The Chinese community rallied to form Jiao Zong (United Chinese School Teachers connector of Malaya, UCSTAM) and Dong Zong (United Chinese School Committees Association of Malaya, UCSCAN) to safeguard Chinese education. The Malayan Chinese Association (MCA) joined in.Its president then, Tun Tan Cheng Lock wheel spoke these memorable lines, Chinese in Malaya should be given Chinese education The dialect or mother tongue can be likened to a persons shadow, and is inseparable from the person himself/herself (translated from Chinese). Efforts to safeguard Chinese education became even more difficult following the Razak Report in 1956 and the Education Ordinance in 1957. Thereafter, Chinese primary education was officially include in the national education system, classified as standard-type primary schools with Chin ese language as the medium of instruction.However, Chinese secondary schools were excluded from the system when the glower Certificate of Education examination (L. C. E) was introduced in English. This was not in congruity with the promise of fairness to other social languages in the rural area as specified in the Razak Report. Furthermore, the Chinese community were horrified by the monetary value of reference in Paragraph 12 of the Razak Report the ultimate aim of educational policy in this country must be to chip in together the children of all races under a national education system in which the national language is the main medium of instruction. Paragraph 12 was subsequently omitted following strong opposition from the Chinese community headed by Jiao Zong. Both the Rahman Talib Report (1961) and the Education Act (1961) reaffirmed the education policy as stated in the Education Ordinance 1957. Since government financial abet was vital to the survival of Chinese second ary schools, more than half of the 41 Chinese secondary schools then had little choice but to switch itself into English medium national type secondary schools. On hindsight, more Chinese view this decision as a big mistake.The stay 14 schools refused to give in, and have remained independent to this day. The MCA facilitated this conversion as it was commodious with the verbal promises made by the Education Minister that the government has no intention to exercise its authority granted under the Act to change Chinese primary schools to national schools and that Chinese schools are allowed to allocate one third of their curriculum for learning Mandarin and Chinese literature. As a consequence of this concession made at the secondaryschool level, teaching of Chinese education in Malaysia was restricted thereafter to the primary school level. The New Education Act 1996 posed an even bigger threat. It threw into enquire the status of national-type schools that were not established u nder Section 28 of the new Act. In fact, prior to this during the initial stage of implementing the 3R system (Reading, Writing & Arithmetic) in 1980, Chinese schools had already been challenged to forgo their medium of instruction. Materials for learning all subjects shut out Mandarin were available only in Bahasa Melayu.In response, Dong Jiao Zong and unhomogeneous Chinese guilds and associations submitted a memorandum to voice their opposition to the Ministry of Education in 1981. The schools were given the assurance that the government had no intention of changing the oddball of Chinese schools. However in the ensuing years, Chinese schools were asked to consider the judgment of integrated schools (1985) and Vision Schools (proposed in 1995, implemented in 2000), in addition to the latest 2-4-3 resolution that sought to introduce the teaching of Mathematics and Science in English (proposed in 2002, implemented in 2003).Despite these challenges, Chinese schools seek to mainta in emphasis on the Five Aspects of Formal Education in Confucianism (Wuyu Jiaoyu) namely, clean-living (de), cerebral (zhi), physical (ti), social (qun ) and aesthetic ( ei) education. Until today, Chinese schools m continue to value discipline, respect for the elderly, courtesy, personal character and morality, kinda than marketable skills such as computer literacy, Mathematics and Science.Some Reflections How does the development of Chinese education affect the church community i Malaysia?n Should we stake our claims to citizenry and defend our right to be educated in our own (mother tongue) language?What close racial integration? Is it possible to promote Chinese education without further polarising the different communities? First, we have a moral basis for defending Chinese education. Being given the choice and having the prospect to be educated in ones own language is a universal human right according to the Universal settlement of Human Rights 1948. Chinese education ha s existed in this country since the nineteenth century.As such, I believe we ought to defend the right of its universe of discourse in the same way as we would for the education of other ethnic communities in their own languages. Second, there is value in the Chinese school culture that is worth speaking up for. Even though outsiders might consider the Chinese community uncompromising in its stand with regard to educational issues, it must be pointed out that it is not just about safeguarding the Chinese language but it is also about retaining the ideals of holistic education.Furthermore, Chinese schools have a tradition of nurturing dedicated schoolteachers, and the Christian community should be at the forefront to encourage this culture of service and excellence. In the past, umpteen of them have had to pay a high price for their conviction and trueness by becoming martyrs Zhuang Xiquan, Chen Taomin and others were deported for opposing the Registration of School Ordinance 19 20 Lim Lian Geok and Yen Yuan Chang were deprived of citizenship in 1961 Lim Huang Sheng and Sim Mow Yu were jailed under the Internal Security Act in 1987.Chinese education help evangelistic work among the Chinese community. It provides students with a better understanding of the Chinese culture. Whereas in the past, the content of Chinese education was often influenced by traditional beliefs and practices, the Chinese education system today is more open to intellectual discourse on rethinking and repositioning the Chinese identity. The main grouse against Chinese schools is the lack of racial integration since students come from predominantly one ethnic background.The question we must ask is, is this acceptable or healthy in a multi-ethnic society like Malaysia? Most counsels for Chinese education would argue that it is less than ideal but what choice do they have?If national schools were to adopt a more holistic philosophy, and their teachers showed a more credible record in te rms of commitment and disciplining of students, and if they provided students with the opportunity to study their own languages, racial integration would be less of an issue and Chinese students would be moreevenly distributed between national and Chinese schools. Despite this obvious shortcoming related to racial integration, I still advocate Chinese education for what it offers.Clearly, through its holistic philosophy and track record, it has produced many an(prenominal) responsible citizens through the years. Chinese education continues to play a remarkable role in nation-building and church life in Malaysia. Florence Kuek lectures Mandarin at Universiti Teknologi Mara.

Miss Julie” by August Strindberg and “Death In Venice” by Thomas Mann Essay

The presentation of the theme and the important char inciteers of lack Julie by August Strindberg and Death In Venice by Thomas Mann.The comparative arena will examine the theme of lust and love, and the similarities between the two main characters from the play overtop Julie by August Strindberg and the Novel Death in Venice by Thomas Mann. The main characters from each story come from a higher kinsfolk, and they are expected to act noble, provided somehow they twain fail because of their pronenesss for love and lust.August Strindberg wishes to portray a high class family that amaze certain standards and values, that dangle Julie the daughter of the family, fails to fulfill. Miss Julie flirts with the servant and looses her virginity to him, her speciality for the servant results in her being dis applauded by people well-nigh her. Her lust for the servant makes her weak and in the end she commits suicide because she was kindle by the servant called blue jean.In Thomas Manns novel on the other hand, the main character is a composition called Gustav von Aschenbach, who comes off as a conservative and somewhat religious man. He is a know author that travels to Venice and comes across a male child that fascinates him, his fascination makes him follow the novel boy called Tadzio around Venice. Even at a young progress Tadzio is well aware of his beauty, and he uses it to capture Aschenbachs attention and his curiosity. Aschenbach too, dies because of his love for Tadzio. Aschenbach gets poisoned by the cholera epidemic in Venice. He dies while surveying Tadzio on the beach, he dies in his chair.Miss Julie is a daughter of a work pop and thitherfore she is wealthy, and has a full staff of servants. Miss Julie seems like a very extroverted person, she approaches the staff and talks to them. bingle in particular, the servant called Jean. One midsummer night Miss Julie grabs Jean and dances with him, only if it was non a subtle dance, Jean desc ribes it while talking to his fianc Christine.Jean I took the count to the station, and when I came back by the barn, I went in and had a dance and there I dictum a young skirt leading the dance with the gamekeeper.But when she caught sight of me, she rushed right up to me and asked me to dance the ladies waltz with her. And ever since shes been waltzing like well, I never saw the like of it. Shes crazy.1This is an warning of how Miss Julie approaches people, in a confident way.When you read the communication between Jean and Miss Julie throughout the book, it is noticeable that Jean is doing all the talking, and philosophizing, Miss Julie sits with him but in the kitchen and listens carefully. Their situation is a problematic one, because compensate though Jean is Miss Julies servant he is also a man, and because of the cadence the story takes place, the man is above the woman.Miss Julie looses her virginity to Jean in the kitchen, and aft(prenominal) Jean has familiar i ntercourse with Miss Julie he realizes that she has no honor or money herself.She realizes what her lust for him has make her do, she will now acquire dishonored by her dad and everyone around her. Jean disrespects her, even though he was the one who just slept with her, and Miss Julie doesnt know what to do with herself?Julie Help me, help me Tell me only what I am to do where I am to turn?Jean O lord, if only I knew myselfJulie I have been exasperated, I have been mad, but there ought to be some way of saving myself.Jean Stay right here and keep quiet, Nobody knows anything.Julie Impossible The people know, and Christine knows.Jean They dont know, and they would never believe it possible.Julie (hesitating) But it might happen again. 2This dialogue is a clear example of their relationship, Miss Julie seemed confident in the start, but because of her developing feelings for Jean she becomes insecure, and starts to ask Jean what do to.The play ends with Miss Julie following Jeans advice and committing suicide, so she would not have to endure her mistakes. She looses all her power, and nobility by sleeping with the servant. In the end it is unmistakable to observe that Miss Julie simply just wanted a man that could take care of her, and her lusts took over her common sense. Miss Julies predicament is very controversial, because what she was doing was very common amongst the male aristocrats. This is a typical example of inequality between sexesThomas Manns controversial novel portrays a man called Gustav von Aschenbach who is an author that travels to Venice alone on a trip.When he arrives in Venice he is very observant, and he notices several(predicate) people around him, playacting silly and he almost gets appalled by their behavior. He saw an elderly man with a mask on, entertaining some younger people.They seemed to be tolerating his presence among them as something habitual and to taken for granted, they treated him as an equal, reciprocated withou t embarrassment when he teasingly poked them in the ribs. How was this possible? 3This is why Aschenbach is a very conservative man, who does not see beyond his possess black and white world. This is one thing that changes on his trip, after checking in to his hotel, he notices a Polish family, amongst them there is a young boy who startles Aschenbach, his beauty startles him and the boy called Tadzio catches Aschenbachs full attention.Aschenbachs love and desire for the boy persuades himself to make up an excuse to stay in Venice, even though he was virtually to leave because of his hazardous health condition.His weeks in Venice result in him sitting by the beach and observing Tadzio.One day, Tadzio turns around and looks directly at Aschenbach, he stares at him in a cocky way, as if he is self aware of his beauty and how Aschenbach feels about him.Aschenbach merely convinces himself that he only has an abstract and artistic interest.Though it is self-evident that he has gotten a serious obsession for him, and started to almost love him.The metropolis of Venice was infected with a bad cholera epidemic, Aschenbach can smell how bad it had gotten, but instead of leaving or staying inside he continues to straits around, as if it is a sense of redemption for what he is intellection.Aschenbach knows himself that what he is doing, and thinking is wrong. His fascination for the boy has taken over his common sense. He does not approach Tadzio but he follows him around Venice, and he dreams about him, and discovers his sexual lusts.One afternoon he goes to the lobby and finds out that the Polish family is leaving, then even in his ill condition he goes to the beach to watch Tadzio for the last time. Tadzio is standing unsupervised by the beach and looking out at the water, he looks back at his admirer, Aschenbach tries to get up but falls back in his chair and dies.Miss Julie was written in 1888, and Death in Venice was written in 1912. There are not many simil arities between the authors, and the styles these two stories were written in.Yet they do have similar themes and similar characters. Lust and love, was what drove both main characters to act differently, and controversial to what they are use to. They both die because of there actions, which were made because of their desires.Both the stories are tragedies but expressed in very different ways, one through a play another through a novel.Miss Julie and Gustav Von Aschenbach have both suffered, suffered what they normally would believe was a genuine thing, love. It was forbidden love and lust.BibliographyStrindberg, August. Miss Julie. New York Dover Publications, 1992. Print.Thomas, Mann,. Death in Venice and other stories. London Vintage, 1998. Print.1 Miss Julie, August Strindberg P.22 Miss Julie, August Strindberg P.253 Death in Venice, Thomas Mann P.211

Utilizing Leadership to Accomplish Successful Organization

Utilizing Leadership to strain Successful Organizational Cultural revision The following paper impart provide an in depth analysis as to the benefits associated with utilizing leadinghip to see self-made organisational stir. The paper will outline and convey the brilliance behind effective leaders demonstration indoors the workforce environment.Along with this, the sizeableness for instigating and culturing positive working relationships amongst employees, coupled with streamlined communication between mental faculty and executive circumspection is of the fulfilment importance. This paper will produce the govern correlations between innovative idea and supremacyful organisational heathen shift, demo the importance of this relationship.The paper will reveal that the functional realities met by of age(p) level leadership provide respective managers with access to information life-sustaining to the success of brass sectional budge and therefore, are of the essenc e(p) to the drivers of pitch, seeking to lick middle level concern and ground floor employees willingness to consent change It is imperative that there is a perfect(a) understanding as to what is involve to press forward ethnical change fulfilation, and hat leadership members convey these principles and strategicalal ideas accurately to their respective provide.Earning and retaining employee willingness to implement change is of the utmost importance as this will every(prenominal)ow for more efficient change implementation, combined with a strategic schemeal effort. Along with this, implementing streamlined communication amongst staff and managers provides a proactive approach in nullifying whatever potential stalemate in the over all told goal. Phalanxs article entitled, Cultural Revitalization Movements in Organization Change Management, outlines one of the most convincing case studies as it relates to what is added in implementing successful cultural change deep d own an organization. 2005) Philae conveys a thorough understanding of wherefore and how organisational value systems change according to the model and furthermore outlines how management derriere success in full guide change in behavior. Along with this, strategic cultural change implementation is most efficient when management ruff understands the ultimate task at hand. Along with effective leadership demonstration, the bespeak for building positive relationships amongst all parties when seeking cultural change is of the utmost importance.This slew instigate trust and rapport between both employees ND management alike, allowing for streamlined communications. Bogart, Melville, and Wilkinson, outline the have for organizational leaders to facilitate the complexities of workforce relationships through the play of training and immersion. It is within these training principles that priggish employee expectations can best be established. This whence affords each employee the op portunity to fully understand their respective position within the workforce environment, which can then ultimately lead to an increase in employee sense of ownership.Positive reinforcement of use training principles can double as a strategic gas for erect and coherent correlation between long-term, innovative thinking and cultural change within an organization. (Bright, Mink, & Owen, 1993) Highly efficient and successful organizations understand the need to adapt with change, and implement policies and procedures that will act as the catalyst for this change.Furthermore, proactively outlining and presenting a clear and concise program when seeking to implement cultural change parents to be advantageous in identifying the end result and then preventing any possible impasse in mailion between management and employees. The principles of ingrained Quality Leadership, as outlined by W. Edwards Deeming, seek to identify an combine philosophy of leadership and management that has bee n easily integrated amongst other organizations with a sufficient level of success.Continued education at the management level can be advantageous in the construction of a new cultural philosophy within a respective organization. (Bonkers, 1992) This set ups to be beneficial for all parties as it provides the organization with a leadership team that not however possess the intellectual capacity to facilitate change, UT also provides management, and in turn, their respective employees, a strategic opportunity to capture and engage an improve skill set. There is a direct correlation between organizational leaders and human resource practices and how these components work together to implement organizational cultural change. Easterly- Smith & Salaam, 1994). Changing core values at the management level and implementing a top-down, coordinated effort by management to pass out the new value system end-to-end the organization can prove to be highly efficient and establishes a level o f accountability for all employees. This hands on viewpoint streamlines communications between all parties within the organization, proactively nullifying any confusion related to change and also displays to employees that the change process is well thought out and highly organized.The functional realities floor employees willingness to accept change. (SST-Amour, 2001). Providing leadership with sufficient information directly related to the organizations ability to successfully orchestrate cultural change within the workforce environment is crucial in formulating a change platform that can be duplicated throughout each respective vision within an organization. . In addition to the aforementioned, requiring leaders to think culturally and even employ cultural tools when seeking to implement successful cultural change within the organization provides for a broader viewpoint.Additionally, boost leadership to centering simultaneously on the systematic and structural changes, as well as the symbolic presence when identifying and using change triggers, can prove to produce highly efficient levels of change. (Brooks, 1997) Presenting management with planned, strategic change platforms, coupled with editorships ability identify and cater to cognitive cultural thinking would be beneficial. Moving forward, managing cultural artifacts when seeking to implement cultural change is very important and should be done so with a direct understanding of the importance this brings.Cultural artifacts are found to be the history of the organization and can include components from social norms to strategic heroes that manage these cultural artifacts could prove to be problematic as these components are deeply rooted within the organization and could ultimately provide barriers that would stifle the change triggers. Team establish Cultural Change A Case Study, presents 10 critical success factors resulting from a strategic, four-step, teamwork program that was designed to assist i n cultural change. (Wellbeing 1992).Additionally, this provides the organization with a teamwork approach that sows together the change process. This can prove to be advantageous in proactively preventing push back from employees as it relates to organizational change. contrary than the aforementioned, Clausal takes a predominant approach directly related to employee potency within the organization and discusses how this relates with successful cultural change. (Clausal, 2004) This then demonstrates the value in using the companys respective employees to assist in instigating cultural change, seeking to utilize employee support to drive organizational values.This can behoove all parties tortuous as leadership can then provide additional focus towards facilitating the continued change model. In conclusion, it is imperative that there is a thorough understanding as to what is needed to facilitate cultural change implementation, and that leadership members convey these principles and strategic ideas accurately to their respective staff. Implementing streamlined communication amongst staff and managers provides a proactive approach in nullifying any potential impasse in the overall goal.Additionally, earning and retaining employee willingness to implement change is of the utmost importance as this will allow for more efficient change implementation, combined with a strategic organizational effort. Recommendations would include implementation of streamlined communication strategies between ground floor employees, divisional leaders, and executive management. This would allow for real age problem solving and a proactive solution to strategic organizational change implementation.

Bubonic plague Essay

Bubonic pesterer has emerged and spread rapidly crossways towns, cities, and rural areas in several worldwide pandemics by means of the substantial of history. credibly the earliest mention of bubonic harry is the Old Testament phonograph recording in the First Book of Samuel giving an account of swellings and rodents that made violate on the Philistines (Ackroyd 55-57). The bubonic plague later hit the f in alling by Roman Empire in the period of the sixth and s crimsonth centuries.And from 1348 to 1350, the plague known as the inkiness demolition brought the suffering and death across europium and china, killing perhaps one-quarter or one-third of the population. This terrible plaguey outbreak of the nonviablely and highly infectious plague in China and Europe, that became possibly the worst catastrophe in all written history, exempt remains one of the most important and controversial tragic events through the history.Many professional historians of medicine analyze d the rake and spread of the sick Death, trying to explain or understand the origin and flow of epidemic disease during that period. This paper will discuss whatsoever of the perspectives and diachronic accounts by giving a glimpse of the evidence that various historians have considered. The dress of the color Death Most historians acknowledge that Europe and China experience population pressure and shortage in the 1300s. Supporters of the demographic model unremarkably link dearth with plague, sometimes directly, sometimes vaguely.Famine and population pressure, affirm North and Thomas (1970), set the stage for disease and very much were associated with the origin of the plague (1-17). Supporting such point of view, Le Roy Ladurie (1972) described the B privation Death as a holocaust of the undernourished (3-34). Historians indicate that the Black Death had been preceded by the periods of deficit, in particular the colossal famine of 1315-17 that was experienced by Eu ropean population in the north, and it is as well as recorded that significant population increase in general had already been reported to begin with the Black Death.Consequently, analysis of supporters of the demographic model would suggest that the massive involution of the twelfth and thirteenth centuries generated a situation where population growth went express than food resources, with the outcome that lack of means by which population could confirm life became more serious and facilitated the origin of the epidemic. Other historians disagree.Thus, for example, Jean Meuvret (1993) argued that thither was no simple or direct cause-effect relationship between famine/population pressure and Black Death. Jean Meuvrets position was corroborate by Jean-Noel Biraben in a great study of the plague (Grmek and Fantini 319). Biraben demo that although bubonic plague often originated after famine, in that respect were many examples when famine came after plague and new(prenomin al) instances in which plague was not come with by famine and vice versa.The historian came to conclusion that in the case of the Black Death there was no cause other than the plague itself that could have brought about epidemic. There may be found some relationship between famine and disease, he indicates, scarcely it was not because famine became the cause of the plague rather, it was because plague, after striking, aggravated famine as a result of the considerable stagnation of agriculture and economic disorder.Moreover, in all the recent medical literature that examines plague taking into account historical cycles, there is found no direct connection between lack of food and plague origin. These considerations generate doubt about the position of the demographic model. The Spread of the Black Death This section will begin by asking where Black Death came from, and wherefore it emerged when it did. There is general placement among contemporary observers and todays historians that the Black Death of the fourteenth degree Celsius originated in central Asia.Although it is hard to tell for sure, but there is also a growing opinion among historians that the Black Death came and expanded across Central Asia from China in the period of the 1340s and in 1347 it infected knightly Genoese callingrs who had established roots between Europe and Central Asia, it well-nigh instantly emerged in Constantinople and was then right away communicated by the trade routes to the widespread areas of Mediterranean and western Europe. Historians have found out that already by the end of 1348 most population of southern and western Europe had been infected with this rapidly developing disease.It soon appeared in England and two historic period later it already hit the rest of the British land, Germany and Scandinavia. It is estimated that between a third and a half of all Europeans were killed by the Black Death of 1348-53 (Loudon 66). The dreadful disease spread both day from the sick to the noninfected. It was even not necessary to be near the infected even world in contact with their clothes or anything they had touched was enough to conk out infected.Most of the poor population was not allowed to leave the houses and became sick every day by thousands. And for insufficiency of appropriate medical service and other things, almost all unavoidably were destined to terrible death. The epidemic killed whole communities. John Saltmarsh presents account of the genocide, economic stagnation and depression brought by plague. He refers to a French historian who described in detail bedraggled villages and farms. Saltmarsh cites a Franciscan Friar, John ClynLest things worthy of remembrance should perish with time, and get away from the memory of those who come after us, I, seeing these many evils, and the whole world lying, as it were, in the wicked one myself awaiting death among the dead inter mortuos mortem expectans as I have truly heard and exa mined, so I have reduced these things to writing and lest the writing should perish with the writer, and the work on fail together with the workman, I leave parchment for continuing the work, if unexpectedly any man survive, and any of the race of Adam escape this canker sore and continue the work which I have begun (Creighton 115).This situation was not hold in only to Europe. Beginning from the 1320s, the Black Death had carved its way on the roads of Central Asia. In particular China was hard affected. close to sources indicate that by the 1390s the population of China may have dropped to about 90 million from 125 million (Gottfried 35). Interpretations of the Black Death medical checkup professionals are now of the same opinion that the Black Death was the bubonic plague, arriving from central Asia, and carried by fleas and rats, which were widespread in medieval Europe.Medieval doctors, however, of course possessed no knowledge to determine by diagnosis anything so dep endent upon microscopic examination of phenomena. As a result, the plague was often attributed to Gods rage against the special depravity and corruption of that period. Thus, for example, in Piers Ploughman, Reason proved that these pestilences were for pure sin, and the south-west wind on Saturday at even was for pure pride, and no point else (Sumption 15). Contemporary astrological specialists discover the deadly union of Saturn, Jupiter, and Mars.In addition, Jews were oppressed and destroyed as there was information that they had poisoned wells. Medical representatives had two opinions the first group claimed that the cause was miasma, pollution of the air, and the second group considered that direct contact was the cause and recommended complete isolation. The quarantines were abruptly useless, taking into consideration the fact that the disease was transmitted by rats and fleas, but these nuances were not known until additional studies were done after the next great plague emerged in the 1890s.Conclusion Human devastation was tremendous in the period of the Black Death, and the demographic, economic, political, social, and psychological impact of the plague was greatly felt for many decades. This paper explored various points of view of historians studying epidemics of the past and their explanations of how and why the great epidemic emerged, spread rapidly and caused so high mortality. It also looked at various interpretations of this disease by contemporary observers.

Rosenbaum’s a Perversion of the Past (Mississippi Burning)

Oleh Jonathan Rosenbaums critique of the 1988 choose Mississippi destroy draws much of its intellectual adn randy response to the film from Rosenbaums personal experiences as a participant in the accomplished rights movement of the 1960s. The article which casts the movie Mississippi impatient in a pretty much unfavorable light due to what Rosenbaum feels is a delib seasonte series of distortions of historic fact recounts in equal portions, Rosenbaums contain experiences of the era and the experience of the era as it is presented by the movies director, Alan Parker, who Rosenbaum immediately identifies as a former advertising director.Rosenbaum also remarks that Parkers previous films all smell of advertisings overheated style (Rosenbaum, 119). and Rosenbaum also reachs it clear that he is not, himself, an impersonal interpretor of the era of the civil rights movement that Parkers movie attempts to cover. Rosenbaums article appeared in a book-length assembling of his essa ys entitled Movies as Politics published in 1997.The book contains many essays on Hollywood films and attempts to shed light on the political repercussions of the all-too-routine historic inaccuracies and poetic license which is deeply embedded in contemporary mercenary films. Rosenbaums thesis, relative to Mississippi Burning is that damage to American culture is, indeed, through by the making of a movie which foc intakes on superficial imagination churches burning, people being beaten, etc and in fact distorts the truth of factual occurrences in order to fulfill the attri just nowes of a successful commercial film.Rosenbaum claims that Mississippi Burning is a dangerous re-visioning of history for many reasons, fore or so among them the fact that the film features two white protagonists, both of whom are federal agents, plus the incontrovertible fact that Parker in shaping his protagonists as unambiguously moral agents with no trace of personal racism or fear of racists, com pletely distorts the historical truths behind the events of the film. For example, Rosenbaum remarks that in his personal experience, no agency or important bureau seemed the least bit interested in helping civil rights activists the answer was no-one.Certainly not the local police or the FBI as I quickly learned (Rosenbaum, 119) and his conclusion that Parker has not only re-envisioned, but wilfully perverted the historical facts behind the event of Mississippi Burning to create a more salable film are quick of scent and just in my opinion. Within the format of the essay, which is more conversational in tone than scholarly, Rosenbaum relies primarily upon anecdotal remembrances and personal experiences than on solidly researched historical evidence or upon sociological references of any kind.His assertions are certainly emotionally convincing because it doesnt take much effort to persuade me, or in all probability many other people, that a big-money director of commercial films would distort or change whatever was necessary in order to make a successful film in economic terms. If it were not so, then verbalise director would still be directing TV commercials. This seems to be the most onerous flaw in Rosenbaums thesis, as I am not entirely convinced that Parker or anyone else associated with Hollywood movies ever intended to make anything other than a piece of entertainment posed as manoeuvre with a more or less obvious historical hook. However, the use of serious cultural issues for the purpose of making money is usually referred to as exploitation and I think Rosenbaum does a quite convincing gambol of painting Parker as an exploitative director bent first on making money and success and only secondarily, if at all, interested in the issues of substantive historical record of the events the movie ostensibly was meant to cover.

Biological Theories of Crime Essay

What ar the central assumptions of biologic theories of crime? How do such theories differ from new(prenominal) perspectives that attempt to explain the same phenomena?Biological Theories of CrimeThese theories are provided by contemporary criminologist who relates the interaction between surrounding fond and physical environments with biological finds and how it in turn shapes behavioral propensity and whitlow activities too. many an(prenominal) researchers appreciate that it can be passed cut to their child to be more endangerment of committing the crime. The finding in the research is non as accurate as they want it to be based on the individual they conducted the test is not so accurate. There is a belief that will bring down that lower level in neurotransmitter cause a person to be anti-social towards an individual. The biological theories are based on the neurotransmitters, hormone, and central nervous dodge that may cause an individual to act out in an combative a nd violent way toward victims. What biological factors does this lesson suggest might substantially influence human intrusion?The Human Genome ProjectThe use of genetic experience developed by the HGP is likely to have momentous implications for both individuals and society. Many of the questions criminologists have raised about the role of genetics in criminal behavior may be answered by the results of research begun by the HGP. 7 In the area of crime-control policy, HGP-related information is expected to support the development of general policy options related to crime pre-vention and the treatment of offenders.Genetics and Heritability TheoriesThe compositions of the human genes is believed to mail out an important role in relations to criminal aggression and it causation. With no explicit indentification of the gene, Crimimologist believe that the influence of social and physical environment is more like to predetermine one to become aggresive of crimimal more than transmi ssible prediposition.Brain Dysfunction TheoriesMost anomalies to the human brain may instauration a criminal instinct and abnomality in behaviours.Body Chemistry TheoriesThis supposition reveals how disruptive behaviour could seldom be reconnected to inadequate nutrition in the body which affects the human body.Hormones and Criminality TheoriesQuite similar to the body chemistry, only the connection is identified with hormonal influences.Biosocial Criminology TheoriesThis theory observes the interacting conncetion that exist between the social environments and biology which is paramount to perception of the human behavior

Logistics department Essay

1. What interactions and discussion need to take cast among the marketing, manufacturing, logistics, and finance departments? relieve the logistics departments role in the introduction of the new product.The useable beas of marketing, logistics, manufacturing and finance should hold weekly sales and operations preparation (S&OP) gibeings to promise the following Identify impregnable planned orders which may be slow up to the customer. Notify key account managers and center operations planning team(s) to further orders in jeopardy Address any resource constraints to meet firm planned orders for the current month and planned orders for the following three months (manufacturing capacity, labor) The focused operations planning team(s) which consists of production, procurement, manufacturing and master production scheduling (logistics) must meet daily to ensure the requirements identified in the S&OP meeting are carried out. Logistics ensures the following ensure that raw materi al inputs to peanuts arrive on prison term without freight damage ensure that finished goods history from the manufacturing facility to the warehouse, dispersion center and eventually the customer arrive on time- in broad(a) without freight damage minimize rapeation costs by utilizing abounding truck load (FTL shipments) and in certain instances, intermodal (rail) shipments for cross country transport2. Why is it necessary for the logistics department to be cognizant of all the expand (quality, timing) of the new product introduction? Discuss the issues that might arise (e.g. the cancel in demand after the Final Four) and what responsibilities the logistics department would have as a result of these changes.This neces perplexy comes out of the need to have the estimable quantity at the right time in the right place to meet customer demand. Without this closecoordination between timing and quantity, deliveries would be delayed, inventory carrying costs would increase and as a result profits would be negatively impacted. In situations where the demand drops after the Final Four, the production planning and scheduling aspect comes into play. By utilizing a master production document which is closely aligned with S&OP meetings, the master production scheduler can put the production amounts to meet decreasing demand. This ensures that product produced is delivered to the customer and does not sit in the warehouse of Petes. To summarize, the logistics department is responsible for reacting to market/demand changes to state profit margins for the business.

Effects of the Yom Kippur War on Arab Israeli Relation

Describe the Effects of the Yom Kippur contend on Arab Israeli relations. (12 marks) The Yom Kippur War happened in October 1973, which involved the Arabs and the Israelis, as substanti e realy as 2 superpowers, the USA and the USSR. At the end of the war, the Israelis had won. However, the Israeli disposal and people were shocked by how the Arabs did. The Yom Kippur War has direct to a tally of effectuate on the Arab-Israeli relations, which can be classified as two aspects, short term and long term. There are some immediate consequences caused by the Yom Kippur War.The Arabs used cover as a political weapon, which led to a huge economic problem and oil shortage in the homo. On 17 October 1973, the price of oil was cut by 70 per cent by the OAPEC, a mostly Arab group. At the same sentence it cut production by 35 per cent and banned all sale of its products to the US and the Netherlands. Because of this oil incident, plenty of people lost their jobs and the prices emboss ed sharply. Therefore, many a(prenominal) countries economies collapsed, which took years to recover. The early(a)wise short term effect was that the war resulted in even more than refugees in Jordan and Lebanon, particularly in Lebanon. slew were then realized that they could no bimestrial rely on the governance but to gain hope from the Palestinian organizations, especially the PLO they need to run for stillness their own way. This indicates a ampleer unsteadiness and also a rising offer for the PLO. The attacks on Israel and the Israeli peace with Egypt led to many invasions the PLO attacks on Israel from refugees camp in Lebanon, as well as the Israel peace with Egypt caused the Israeli invasions of Lebanon in 1978 and 1982. The Camp David Accords isolated Egypt from the rest of Arab earth.After the war, Egypt subscribe two agreements with the Israeli president with the help of the American Secretary. Many Arab countries were very sad and disappointed. Egyptian relat ions with rest of the Arab world declined. As a result, Sadat was assassinated by extremists. Seeing how Sadat was killed by making peace with Israel, other Arab leaders didnt have the courage to do what Sadat has done, to make peace. Consequently, the Arab world was lacking a clear leader. Syria attempted to take this position, but didnt success. Also, after the war, Egypt moved towards USA away from USSR, which means Egypt was no longer close to USSR.Instead, they improved the relationship with USA as the USSR did not support them much during the war. Trust was lost between USSR and Egypt. The long term effects brought by the war can be divided into a a couple of(prenominal) points. The world opinion changed after the Yom Kippur War. Militarily, the Israelis won. They had shown their weapons, their training and their strategies were the better ones. But politically, it was a victory for the Arabs. They had completely surprised the Israelis and the rest of the world in the war. Th ey flat let the world know that Arab soldiers could fight with courage.Because of the war, Egyptians became more confident in themselves. They thought that Israel had only been saved by the United States. The thought that Israel is so strong that might not be defeated had been destroyed. After the war, the world was not on the side of Israel anymore. In contrast, there was much more sympathy for the Arab position. Above all, they had done everything together, especially in the use of the oil weapon. As a result, the rest of the world showed much more evaluate for the Arabs. This is the first war in which the Israel suffered serious losses. There were a great Human loss and a feeling of uncertainty among Israelis.An estimated 3,000 Israeli and 8,500 Egyptian and Syrian soldiers were killed, and 8,000 Israelis and almost 20,000 Syrians wounded. It was the first Arab-Israeli war in which Israel suffered a uplifted casualty rate. These effects led to the emergence of an Israeli peace effect. This and the ulterior experience of the wars in Lebanon led to the growth of Israeli peace movement in Israel. To conclude, the Yom Kippur War has a negative impact on the Arab-Israeli relations. The PLO and other Palestinian terrorists groups, the oil crisis and the other incidents happened in the Yom Kippur War have worsen the relationship between the two states.

Emerson Self Reliance

Ralph Waldo Emersons works Self-Reliance and Nature esteem transcendentalism as a romantic, exclusiveistic philosophy of flavor in hopes of establishing contemporary innovations in society which cull traditionalistic institutions and customs. Emersons thoughts ar gener in eachy based on innermost reflection, in which the capabilities of unrivalled and only(a)s soul and intuition are funda rational. He opines that a rejuvenated sense of individualised inspiration can overpower the narrow constructs society imposes on its members.Emerson stresses the potential for genius and creativity in all population through the depth of philosophic interest in disposition and in aceself, allowing peck to find self-truth or their purpose. He further expounds upon this concept of the pursuit of self-realization by describing the appendage of conglomerateing insight through curtain raising oneself to the powers of record in solitude and closing oneself to the influence of societ y in isolation. Isolation reflects Emersons statement of personism as its emphasis is determined on the mental strength of a person over traditional systems of thought.This philosophy esteems individuals above all society, religion, and otherwise institutions and systems of thought. The dogmatisms imposed on mankind beings are divulge of a tend one must pull up stakes from in order to achieve individual freedom of thought and expression. A person must use society as a banal from which they must rise above by disregarding its norms. Emerson repeatedly calls on individuals to value their hold thoughts, opinions, and experiences above those presented to them by others. Each individual is a unique expression of creativity and pass oning, cap qualified of contributing different ideas and reforms to society.Mankinds divinity also plays a prominent role in the methods of isolation. each(prenominal) people, according to Emerson, run through divine powers within. Success an d achievement are derived from people themselves, non bestowed by a nonher superior being. He uses the example of plea as a means to effect a private end, is thievery and meanness (Self-Reliance 545). This direct link between divinity and the individual provides federal agency that the individual will, when correctly exercised, can never produce evil.Individual will, in Emersons philosophy, is not fewthing to be corrected or hidden, as done so by many who are unable to see past societys dictums, but rather a force to be asserted and upheld for the more advanced progress of man. In this context however, an individual who fails to be self-reliant, who does not intend to act upon his or her own thoughts and ideas, is out of step with its purpose. much(prenominal) a person, in Emersons view, cannot be productionive, fulfilled, and therefore happy, as they are not living for anything real.These people are only temporarily pacified by ideals that have already been established, inn ovations that have already been discovered, and abilities that have already been exhausted. On the other hand, a person who is self-reliant can be assured that he or she is carrying out a divine purpose of life, as no one before them could have had the exact same ideas, strengths, or mental environment to work with. Those who flout the rules and conventions of society and religion do, however, suffer denunciation as a result.But, Emerson points out, those men who were earlier condemned are now considered some of the greatest thinkers of all time Galileo, Socrates, Copernicus, and countless others. Amending the immediate thought process of ones world exposes the counter ideas of those who do not essential change, but is ultimately beneficial when they are given time to discipline and open their minds to new ideas. The first innate reaction of man is to reject that which is different and may pose dangers to the familiar way of life.This terror that scares us from self- confidence ( Self-Reliance 537) is the beginning of the emergence of universal conformity which, in turn, eclipses innovation and personal growth. However, the more people open themselves to their personal judgment and intuition, the more trust they will have for each other as a common respect for ideas will develop. People will be able to occupy to each other through their processes of thought, ensuring acknowledgment amongst all for the effort and uniqueness society will experience through individual contributions.Self-reliance is not a merely a consequence of averting tradition but, just as importantly, a matter of believing and doing what one is uniquely suited to believe and do. Emerson expects the self-reliant to substitute originality for imitation in every sphere of life. Referencing architecture, Emerson explains that originality will yield a product that is superior to one made by imitation If the American artist will study with hope and venerate the precise thing to be done by him , considering the climate, the soil, the length of the day, the wants of the people e will create a house in which all these will find themselves fitted, and taste and sentiment will be well-provided also (Self-Reliance 547). A commitment to live according to ones own ideas approximately every matter will authorizedly result in benefits furthermost greater than those which are given by adhering to former ideals of society as people will be able to almost customize the different aspects of their lives. Isolating oneself from the mental influences of others provides people a tool to aid their focal point on what they really desire from themselves and their lives.Though solitude arrives at the same product as isolation, abilities and confidence in oneself, it requires a separate course of action. In solitude, one must physically disconnect from civilization and open oneself to the influences of temperament and the powers of the unquantifiable. In Nature, Emerson displays the ove rwhelming sense of unity, harmony, and the blending of mans identity with the divine spunk of temper, as the entire universe is composed of Nature and the Soul (Nature 493). By being in nature, one comes upon the feeling of losing his merciful point of view.An wise one is then created through the feeling that man exists as part of nature-I am nothing. I see all (Nature 494). Natures constructs, such as the sublime, help people to not only apprize their positions in the universe, but realize the vast unknown and the consequent puniness of everyday temporal problems. By ridding oneself of the perceived dualism between people and nature, one becomes part of all creation and is able to access the power nature exerts. Solitude also includes the awareness of time and its genuine importance that nature conveys to man.Emerson counsels the self-reliant to keep their focus on the present. Man postpones or remembers, (Self-Reliance 541) he explains. He does not live in the present, but w ith reverted eye laments the past, or, absorbed of the riches that surround him, stands on tiptoe to foresee the future (Self-Reliance 541). 1 who lingers in the past or worries about the future wastes ones life in regret while another who looks to the future misses todays opportunities and pleasures. It is Emersons confidence in the present that leads him to establish that consistency is foolish.That a certain belief or course of action was correct, useful, or best in the past does not guarantee that it remains so in the present. Conversely, to leave behind a belief or a way of doing things does not mean that it was not useful at the time or that one was wrong to have pursued it, but it no longer applies. He refers to a roses ability to just grow, no matter what may happen in the future and what had happened in the past. The rose just does what it is supposed to do, and does not let its goal out of sight by becoming distracted with mere possibilities or previous occurrences whos e effects cannot be altered.The ability to live in the moment ensures that an individual uses the potential of every moment to its fullest, ultimately creating a genuine purpose for said individual to work towards and a higher probability of fulfillment in life. This individual goal, however, comes with its own approach. Emerson acknowledges the fact that through isolation, people gear towards finding something they that they either want to achieve or experience as they are able to focus their thoughts on their own potential. Reaching a goal, however, has no planned or guideline people must go about doing so in their own way.To demonstrate the effectiveness of an apparently inconsistent course through life, Emerson uses a sailing journey as a allegory The voyage of the best ship is a zigzag line of a hundred tacks (Self-Reliance 538). The knowledge that one is following the true path to the even out destination, despite apparent inconsistencies, gives one confidence to ignore the taunts of others who deride one for changing course. By complying with both isolation and solitude, intuition judgment and perceptiveness become the powers by which people liberate themselves from the constructs and opinions of others and focus on personal growth.Emersons perception of solitude suggests that one opens themselves to the exterior influences of nature to gain insight whereas his theory of isolation contends that people use civilization as a standard from which they must deviate. If the individual is able to progress, society will do so automatically. Therefore people must trust their own characters and way of life. Isolation also combats the notion that all people are obliged to acquiesce to societal conformities that are ultimately detrimental to both individual and communal well-being.The norm is not always right, society regresses alternatively of progresses as people refuse to change what has been, in fear of being different. Solitude results in personal acceptanc e to where they are in life as people open themselves to the sublime or powers they cannot compete with, tremendous a sense of humility and therefore a realistic arithmetic mean to life and ones own potential. Consequently, nature along with the powers of the human mind embodies true happiness and fulfillment.

Big Time Toymaker V. Chou Essay

1. At what point, if ever, did the parties wear a beat?I believe that in that respect were two bring downs make in this scenario. The get-go one was the verbal wipe out that sated that the stipulations of price and the event that in that location required to be a indite take in before distributing the product. The email, since it was in penning can alike count as a pen shorten twain parties had knowledge that there would be some sort of written agreement. simoleons was in the right to think that the email stating the key toll and agreements counts as a contract.2. What accompaniments may weigh in favor of or against Chou in terms of the parties objective intent to contract? The facts that Chou was in a verbal agreement with BTT will be right-hand in proving that they had a preliminary agreement pending a written one. The fact that an email was sent to him with all the key terms, price, magazine frames and obligations is also helpful in proving that Chou had a val id agreement with BTT. I believe that that email would count as a binding contract since both parties had a promise pending performances. This was a mutual sagacity in which there was an offer by BTT and an acceptance by Chou.3. Does the fact that the parties were communicating by e-mail have any impact on your analysis in Questions 1 and 2 (above)? In a office it does because when I think of an agreement I think of it as a written and signed agreement by both parties. However BTT did non specify in what kind of writing this contract needed to be. They did non specify if there was need to sign, nonified or have witnesses for the contract. Email colloquy between two people describing the key terms of a contract and having both of them acknowledge the key terms to me serves a contract. While there was no signature, it had both parties names on it, it could be said that it was an E-signature. excessively we have to keep in mind that the terms were also demonstrateed verbally pr ior to the email being sent.4. What role does the statute of frauds play in this contract? I believe that this email communication meets the statute of frauds and the fact that it had the named of the people in business counts as a contract. There have been causal agents were the name at the end of an email counts as a signature, caseful Stevens v. Publicis, were the publicis won because the name of both parties were in the written emails. In this case both parties names are on the emails and that signaled both parties intent to do business.5. Could BTT avoid this contract under the doctrine of mistake? Explain. Would either political party have any other defenses that would allow the contract to be avoided? I think that BTT might have a chance to void the contract under the doctrine of mistake because they can deed of conveyance that Chou misunderstood the fact that the emails meant that he was able to go ahead and distribute the product, devising it a bi ding contract. Howev er it was clear that the email declared the facts of the contract and BTT did non specify that Chou should in fact spread over to draft the contract for both parties to sign. I think that BTT would have a hard time voiding the contract under the doctrine of mistake. I think that fact there was no unique(predicate)ation to how the contract would be written leaves a lot of vague results. BTT should have been more specific in their emails saying that Chou should still have to draft a contract agreement and that the email was not enough for the contract. In this scenario BTT would have a chance at voiding the contract.6. assumptive, arguendo, that this e-mail does constitute an agreement, what friendship supports this agreement? The fact that BTT promised distribution rights to Chou pending an agreement counts as consideration. In this case, something of value was put on the line by both parties, entering them into an agreement to exchange mutual performances. In this case there wa s also a value that we can determine, and that was $25,000 paid to Chou in exchange for exclusive negotiation rights. I think that consideration was exhibit in this agreement, making a valid contract.At the end of the scenario, BTT states that it is not interested in distributing Chous new strategy game, Strat. Assuming BTT and Chou have a contract, and BTT has appalled the contract by not distributing the game, discuss what remedies might or might not apply. In this scenario the remedies that would apply would be, compensatory restoration because in this case Chou suffered a loss of potential salary that he would have made by his new game. It would also pay back him as if BTT had not breached the contract.I think that if he could not seize compensatory damages then he would also be able to claim consequential damages because it states that it compensates the non-breaching party for foreseeable indirect loses. It also states that it involves a unique circumstance beyond the co ntract. In this case the contract BTT made was taken over by someone else who at the end did not want to do business with Chou. Restitution and Liquidated damages do not applied to this because there was no unjust enrichment by BTT due to the breach of contract. BTT and Chou did not agree to any damages ahead of time there fore liquidated damages does not apply.

Literary Translation as a Creative Act Essay

Literary reading implies the commentary of all genres of literature, which include prose, drama and poetry. Literature is described as an app arntly nebulous body of knowledge in oral or written form, an imitation of life, which reflects civilization and culture, and which covers every angle of human activities-culture, tradition, entertainment, schooling among others. It is unmatchable of the great creative and universal means of communicating the emotional, religious and intellectual concerns of humankind.Literary translation has to do with translating texts written in a literary language, which abounds in ambiguities, homonyms and arbitrariness, as distinct from the language of science or that of administration. Literary language is highly connotative and subjective because each literary author is lexically and stylistically idiosyncratic and through his power of imagi solid ground, he uses certain literary techniques such as figures of speech, proverbs and homonyms through which he weaves literary forms. The literary translator is therefore the person who concerns himself with translation of literary texts.A literary translator generally respects good writing by taking into account the language, structures, and content, whatever the nature of the text. The literary translator participates in the authors creative activity and then recreates structures and signs by adapting the sharpen language text to the source language text as nearly as intelligibility allows. He contains to assess not only the literary quality of the text but as well as its acceptability to the take aim reader, and this should be done by having a deep knowledge of the ethnical and literary history of both the Source and the Target Languages.Language and culture atomic number 18 closely related and one is indispensable to the other. In fact, language acquires its importation from the countrys culture. A single language may overlay several culture borders. There are generally problems in the translation of cultural enounces in a literary text unless there is a cultural overlap between the source language and the target language. It is not enough for a translator to know what words are used in the target language he must also make the reader understand the sense as it is understood by the reader of the original.For instance, in a text where there is a cultural focus, there can be translation problems due to the cultural break between the source and the target languages. The meaning of a single word or expression is largely derived from its culture. Therefore, translation, being a simple linguistic process, a cultural understanding comes into play because the translator is supposed to ca-ca equivalence and where this does not exist, problems occur.The translator is expected to creatively exploit the modify cultural, linguistic and literary context in order to realize the contrary potentials of the target language in an act or literary foot since tra nslation is an intercultural activity. Linguistically, each language has its own metaphysics, which determines the spirit of a nation and its behavioral norms, and this is what is known as linguistic relativity. Language directs our intellect and level off our sensory perception.Since words or images may vary considerably from one group to another, the translator needs to pay attention to the style, language and vocabulary peculiar to the two languages in question in order to plead an exact translation of the source language text. Thus while translating something from a language to other, the sense and the behavior of the sentence gets changed obscurely. So as to sprout the that sense and the behavior of the sentence the original author meant, the translator himself need to be creative, with a good knowledge of both languages, the one translating to and from.

Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Essay

The sub-Saharan Africa has been accept inter casely for the unretentiveness which has taken a enormouser du ration. This hanker duration of beggary in the sub-Saharan, has been existing as a issuing of non-homogeneous issues, among which is the low sources of income. The application distress has direct to the tribe deplorable health status as thoroughly as low living standards among sepa say basic necessities. Various limitations accept kindled a free burning p everywherety in the world, and to be more specific in sub-Saharan Africa, and do problems in trials to help the situation.Among these limitations is critical threshold which involves the financial sources and savings of the sub-Saharan countries, the dysfunctional intromissions, and neighborhood effects, among opposites. All these limitations equally participate in the persistence meagerness in sub-Saharan Africa. sub-Saharan Africa lies on the bottom when comp ard to other continent in damage of weal th, and this has been setd a lot by the Africas low discipline savings. The field of study savings be determined by the interior(prenominal) finance, and the effects of national finances possess direct continue on national savings.sub-Saharan Africa has low national savings because of their home(prenominal) finance is too little to support a good large(p) for undivided liveers in the sub-Saharan Africa. This is because the nominateforce is gritty comp ared to the savings, thence creating a gap between the amount necessary to sustain the bunkers and the oper able-bodied amount. This has contri stilled a lot in the persistence of the privation, because their has been an increase in the sources of labor, thus distributing the available low capital to the m either workers leads to workers getting precise little, and this has led withal to the depreciation of capital.Efforts to solve this has been made by reducing the number of virtuoso(prenominal) workers and incre asing their capital in terms of salary, but it has non been able to help, because when a few(prenominal) people work, it means m any(prenominal) people exit have no source of capital, thus relying on the small running(a) population, which increases the ratio of dependants and consuming a lot of the capital gained from the salaries, thus leaving vigour to be saved. This shows that the poverty traps squirt be over jumped in training if mixed individuals increases scales in cost of education in relating to skills premiums and household income. abject economy in Sub-Saharan countries has been influenced a lot by the minimum education attainment. According to statistics, the dependants ratio in Sub-Saharan Africa is high around 0. 9 dependants per individual worker, with 88 percent of the dependants macrocosm young children with the age of less than fifteen years. The labor force step-up has similarly been limited by the HIV and AIDS epidemic which has cosmos free burningly affecting the Sub-Saharan Africa, thus lowering the number of the versatile workers in the continent, who are judge to be providing labor for the continent.The low domestic savings has been evidenced by the ratio between Gross national savings and Gross national income, and this was 17% according to 2003 estimate by the World Bank. When these Sub-Saharan Africa countries are compared with the middle low income countries, the Sub Saharan Afri tole cast countries position lies behind all other because their bread national savings is low, as a head of depreciation of their fixed capital, callable to low enthronisation fundss and lack of replacement of the capital stock, thus continuous maturation of the stock which enhances the depreciation of the stocks value.According to the table below, it is light that the national savings of Sub-Saharan countries in Africa is small to sustain the net increase in capital stock As a result of the poverty, the people in Sub-Saharan countries have dedicated the small income to the first-string basic need, and especially reference for their survival. This means that these people give consumption a priority, and since nothing is left after consumption, they end up not having anything to save. This explains why its hard for the sub-Saharan countries continue being inside the poverty traps.Many people in the Sub-Saharan Africa do not have investment opportunities, bearing in mind that an investment has the mogul to create its own savings this becomes inapplicable to these people because the investments which are expected to create the savings are not available. For example after an interrogate to a Kenyan, mavin of the Sub-Saharan citizens, around twenty percent of the Kenyan citizens have a title deed, showing that the remaining eighty percent have no ownership to land. in spite of the fact that land is one of the major investment which many industrialized and developed countries account on, in their case, very few people own lands thus they potnot have any savings from land. (Pollin 2002). This means that there are low savings, savings are major sources of loans and sources of starting capital, thus in the case of Sub-Saharan countries, it is very hard to put capital into accumulation, due to lack of starting capital. contrasted the East Asian countries which have low income, the Sub-Saharan countries lack long term investments which sens continuously produce new sources of savings and positive savings. Despite the East Asians low income, they have long term racy investments which help in sourcing savings, thus promoting both(prenominal) domestic and national savings which rid ofs poverty, leaving a minimal need of exotic aids. The Sub-Saharan harvesting has been varying, thus cavictimization harvest-feast instability.Only few of the Sub-Saharan countries had a standard fatherth rate, lower than the aggregate growth rate of the add up countries. This instability has resulted from little trade within and across the continent, due to lack of trade goods. The Sub-Saharan weather has a role in find out the agricultural output, since many of the countries rely on estate as a major source of income, and the variable weather in the countries has affecting agriculture greatly which has led to growth instability and the degenerative poverty.Institutions lack finances they thronenot monetize or mobilize domestic savings. As at 2003, the Banking sector credit was seventy three percent when express as a ration of GPD, compared to forty three percent in the low income countries. The table below gives the statistics which clearly shows that the productive private investment are rarely financed in Sub-Saharan countries and these investments need to be financed well to ensure that they have a positive impact on both domestic and national savings.Many trials have been made to stop the poverty in the Sub-Saharan Africa, whereby the strategies have always based eradicati on of poverty on the need for greater ambitions of the affected people, development of growth orient strategies and a greater accumulation of long term capital. With this thus growth canister be increased, domestic savings as well as national savings. The trials have being hindered by an ideological mindset pecuniary policy and restrictive fiscal as these go contrary to the speedy stinting growth that is necessary in Africa.This has been as a result of lack of any usable theory on how to promote a process which can sustain itself in relation to capital accumulation. This is because with a source of rapid capital that can be accumulated rapidly, then the Sub-Saharan countries to be able to involve in domestic and national savings as well as financing the private sectors as a result of savings amplification and financial liberalization which can decrease the poverty experienced in these countries.The poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa can be minimized by implementing strategies and pol icies to ensure that the growth rate in stabilized, ensuring that domestic resources are mobilized in a way that they can accelerate to thus accumulating capital, and balancing the ratio between capital and total output. To achieve this the public investment need to be put into working to ensure that public revenue are increased and to offer loans which maximizes the productive capacity of the sparing, with a development which is long term.Tax policy should overly ensure that the public revenue is in a rate that can enhance self-sustaining process proper revenue laws. The countries in Sub-Saharan countries are very low compared to industrialized countries, showing the reason for continuous low income and poor growth. The financial policy is necessary in militarization of domestic savings. The policy ensures that the savings and external private financing are changed into long term investments which can slow and flexibly produce enhancing a continuous domestic and national saving s. Monetary policies help in determining and regulating the inflation rate.The low rates are good for economic growth while high rates interfere with the interest of the poor thus limiting economic growth. further to eradicate poverty from the Sub-Saharan Africa, an average rate is more appropriate because very low rate slows the economic development while limiting employment, and very high rates can also have a negative impact on the poor countries economy. The poverty traps in the Sub-Saharan countries can be over jumped if all the above can be done, because a mass investment will definitely increase the Sub-Saharan productivity. (Bauer. 2000).This is because, the productivity will tack the output and this decreases the cost of for each one unit produced thus this can easily start up a chain which can positively strengthen the investment while reducing the costs. This clearly shows that to overcome poverty in Sub-Saharan countries each individual has to work hard, either indiv idually as groups to ensure that the poverty is eradiated, since poverty never entraps anybody, but with no efforts to work against it, the Sub-Saharan countries can persistently live in it. Hard work is necessary not only to overcome poverty but also to maintain wealth since being lazy encourages poverty trapping.Dysfunctional institutions are developed as a result of the forces from politics and or the complaisant interaction of various people in society or communities. These can entrap the people in the pockets of poverty. In Sub-Saharan countries, the poverty is influenced a lot by these institutions which bear in comparability in power and wealth. This is because these institution directly shapes the countries economy and since nearly of these institution in Sub-Saharan Africa have facilitated in the insecurity of the property rights. These institutions include public schools and public goods.The poor property rights in Sub-Saharan countries have led to the low income and r esultant low income, thus persistently poor citizens. These institutions are involved with poor divisions of products of societal activities. Individuals on these countries are expected to adhere to the institutions status, and in most of the population of these individuals they refuse to rely on the status. The institutions enhance self enforcing conventions but it becomes very difficult for the poor people to have a dominate and to monitor the necessary corporate action to shift the population in these countries from the state of inequality to equality.This is the reason why you will see that patronage the fact that some countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa are rich in wealth, the amount of savings in the domain will not be used to help the poor countries from their worst state, but rather the income will continue to yield more and more for the rich countries. The poor ends up becoming poorer while get richer. On the other hand, some of the institutions in the poor Sub-Saharan Africa have corrupt institutions which are either social or political institution. (De Soto2002.)To sort out the inequality issues, both collective actions are necessary to enhance motivation of every individual in the country against the traps of poverty. This collective action can be motivated using good public institutions, and thus if the Sub-Saharan countries can effectively make use of these institutions, in a collective action of each citizen in the poor countries, then the inequality levels can be minimized and shifted to equality whereby all members can easily over jump the traps of poverty.In Sub-Saharan countries, the better off countries like South Africa and Nigeria among others can help a lot in eradicating the chronic poverty in the region if they can engage in cross countries equality promotion because their income is higher than the other countries thus equality can be achieved by collectively acting against inequality and poverty in general. In Sub-Saharan countr ies there is high inequality, where by instead of saving, the income wealth is wastefully consumed. Some countries also in the Sub-Saharan Africa are major net creditors, besides being hard indebted. Boyce and Ndikumana 2000).The government of the country acts as a net debtor with the country being net creditor, meaning that some of these country end up investing their wealth outside the continent, thus not taking any role in eradicating of poverty in their own continent, but jumper lead other countries in the continent to more and worse poverty status. An example to clarify this is dated back between the year 1970 and 1996, when a cumulative capital flight of around twenty five of Sub-Saharan countries was US$28. billion which was 1. 6 the continents total stock of external debts The social impost have played a role in the persistent of the poverty in Sub-Saharan countries. This is because the social customs are set by the society for every individual in the society to follow, without questioning. This means that scorn the fact that a certain custom in the country can have an impact in the poverty persistence all individual ought to without failure. This has encouraged poverty persistence giving no room to eradicate poverty.If anybody tends to deviate from the custom to enhance generation of income, he or she cogency never get the freedom to be in the society or to relate with other people in the society, and in many cases, the people who go against the social customs are regarded as outcasts in the society. This is usually associated with many disadvantages in the society, thus many people will opt moving as per the custom for their safety. These traditional institutions have effects in the market place of many Sub-Saharan countries, and this has facilitated the persistent poverty in the region.The Neighborhood effects limit the poverty eradication in Sub-Saharan Africa. These effects include the goals role models or the network within various famil ies and communities in the country. (Lal 2002). This is because the Sub-Saharan countries cost various individuals who differ in terms of social economic environment, thus various beliefs and preferences. Various social economic groups have different influence and this leads to various outcomes. Persistent inequality continuous to exist as a result of role model influence peer effect and other group related factors. Bauer 2000). When various groups of children grow up in any society, they usually grow up getting aspiration from their role models either in education or development. However in cases where there are no role models who exist in the neighborhood then the developing generation develops up with poor aspiration and for example there is a lack of role model in business and economics, then the developing generation end to have poor market, and labor aspirations, and this definitely causes poor income sources as well as poor labor proceeds thus poverty.The poor aspirations ar e then familial to subsequent generation, causing persistent poverty in the region. The cycle gets reiterate on and on because these children grow to form new neighborhood with each generation and this explains why the poverty becomes persistent. Groups influences determines individual outcome, various policies need to be established to ensure that charters are developed as well as magnet schools.These policies should be incorporated into public policies in order to enhance opportunity equality concentrated poverty undermines the communitys processes, thus explaining the reasons why poverty continuously get reproduced in a society. poorness traps thus are the results of various factors such as economy production scales, political and economic institutions whose work is poor, the incomplete financial markets and the social customs. out-of-pocket to the factors complexity and diversity, its thus hard to policy which can work against the chronic poverty. To help this various policies are to be involved, though shrewd them becomes a challenge. Various conventional methods have been used to measure the poverty traps. These models include growth model, where we have the Solow model and AK model. The growth accounting in these models is not accurate, and the National income accounts data over estimates the Africas actual savings.Despite the fact that low technology and low savings have led to low levels of development, the conventional models used to determine this are neither accurate, nor consistent. It therefore means that despite the fact that various individuals may put a lot of effort to ensure that they are out of the poverty traps, a lot holds them back, thus they cannot individually jump over these traps, unless they collectively flux and act. This becomes a challenge since other factors within the countries and communities blocks the individuals.

People who influenced rizal

When racial was a young boy he would always spend time with his older brother, Pacing. He learned so many things from his brother. Pacing made a great impact on Racals life. As a child, Racial had so many interest, he was into painting, sculpting, reading, create verbally and many more. He grew up in a family that is exposed to books and there he learned to love reading and writing. angiotensin converting enzyme of the most serious person that contributed to Racals being was his mother, Deodorant Alonso.During the time of Racals mother, it was very unlikely for a woman to reach college level, but she was able to reach college and was an expert in mathematics. Jose Racial learned from his mother about the ways of life and on being a good citizen to his country. There would be no Jose Racial if it was not for Deodorant Alonso. Because of Racals intelligence, he was sent to Banyan, a more advanced(a) city in Laguna, and later on went to At whiz Municipal fireplug Manila for advanc ed learning.There were parts of Jose Racals novels that was inspired by incidents that happened in Racals time. One incident that led Jose Racial to write about Isis in one of his novels was the incident that happened to his mother. Deodorant Alonso was accused of poisoning her sister-in-law and was punished without any proof. And some other Incident that was told to Jose Racial by his brother was the execution of the SOMBRERO, an acronym denoting the surnames of the priests that was executed.

Inventory System Essay

Flipkart is a leading destination for online stag in India, offering some of the best prices and a completely hassle-free pay back with options of paying through Cash on Delivery, Debit vizor, Credit Card and Net Banking processed through secure and trusted gate rooms. Now shop for your favorite books, coif, footwear, lifestyle entrance feeories, baby care products, toys, posters, sports and fitness, mobile phones, laptops, cameras, movies, music, health and beauty, televisions, refrigerators, air-conditioners, slipstream machines, MP3 players and products from a host of different categories available.Some of the top portion outing electronic brands on the website are Samsung, HTC, Nokia, Dell, HP, Sony, Canon, Nikon, LG, Toshiba, Philips, Braun, Bajaj and Morphy Richards. Browse through our cool lifestyle accessories, apparel and footwear brands featured on our site with expert descriptions to help you pose at the right buying decision. Flipkart in addition offers free hom e economy for many of our products along with easy interest-free EMI options. Get the best prices and the best online shop experience every time, guaranteed. EBayEBay is an Amerecan multinational internet consumer-toconsumer corporation, headquartered in San Jose, California.It was founded in 1995, and became a notable success story of the dot-com bubble it is now a multi-billion dollar business with operations localized in over cardinal countries. The follow manages eBay.com, an online auction and shopping website in which large number and businesses buy and sell a broad variety of goods and services world all-encompassing. In addition to its auction-style selling, the website has since expand to include Buy It Now standard shopping shopping by UPC, ISBN, or other kind of SKU (via Half.com) online classified advertisements (via Kijiji or eBay Classifieds) online event shred trading (via StubHub) online money transfers (via PayPal) and other services.Shop CluesShopClues.com is an online retail website, headquartered in Gurgaon, India. The company was founded in the Silicon Valley, USA in the year 2011 by an alumnus of Washington University and renowned Wall Street internet analystSandeep Aggarwal and eBays former Global Product Head, Sanjay Sethi.ShopClues was the first e-commerce website in India that operated on the managed marketplace model. Over 12,000 registered merchants retail +2,000, 000 products on the ShopClues platform to over 42 one thousand thousand visitorsevery year across 9500 locationsin the country. As per the citation, ShopClues joined as 35th starter motor in the Indian e-commerce in 2011 and is reported to have made its way to the list of the top 6 e-commerce destinations in the country. The company has employees over 350 people across locations. Lazada PhilippinesLazada Philippines is an online shopping website from Rocket Internet GmbH, which is an international online business incubator established in 1999 founded by the Samwer Brothers namely Alexander, Mac and Oliver.Lazada Philippines provides a wide array of products like consumer electronics, home appliances, clothes, civilize supplies, and more. The website utilizes a secure online act model in order to protect the privacy and vital informationof users. It offers allowance methods such as the use of credit card or account card, cash on delivery, and Banco de Oro (BDO) credit card installment. It also entitles customers to manufacturers warranties and returns policy. The Lazada Android app was also launched for free to download on the Google Play Store in June 2013. relate StudiesPaki research nala neu ha internet about eu related studies hine nga tote up inventory system parehas hitun related literature na ada ha egbaw.CHAPTER tripleMETHODS AND PROCEDURESResearch DesignResearch EnvironmentHistorical Notes viewResearch ProceduresResearch InstrumentsResearch RespondentsStatistical TreatmentPaki basa la ngan pake intendi hine nga chapter III?Kaila ngan han eu groupo mag study hine nga research sitaution Halimbawa/Example kun teacher eu research study, kailangan about teacher method la it ebutang nganhi. Sugad hit design,environment,procedures ngan instruments, respondents naada naka butang ha igbaw. pag download nala kamu para about hine nga method and procedures basta related hit eu system study..CHAPTER IVDocument of the Current SystemThe document of certain system uses manual process in all its transaction. Personnel en-charge uses a manual process in managing the transmission lines and inventory of the location supply. Inventory is sometimes not updated, and products are not verified on time. Time and endeavour consumed in verifying the exact number of products and the personnel en-charge has to browse the stock room to count manually.Figure 4 Current System manual(a) FlowchartHardware Setup(waray ku maisip na pasible ngada hit eyu hardware setup) Software and application program Used( anu it eu gamit na software a pplication?)Document of the Proposed SystemThe bring home the bacon Inventory System basically support the primary processes of the business transactions. carrying out of release Inventory System leave initiate some changes in the work flow of the EVSU B University business transactions. The School has lots of figurer parts to offer etc.Software RequirementsThe sideline software requirements will make the system operational Microsoft Windows 7 or higher(prenominal)PHP 5.3.1MySQLCascading expression Sheet(CSS)Extensible Markup local area networkguage (XML)Mozilla Firefox or Google ChromeHardware Requirements SpecificationThe proponents recommended the following to make the system operational Computer Set(Server)-Speed 64 bit 4 cores or higher-Resolution 1024768-RAM 8 GB or higher-Hard magnetic disk 750 GB or higherComputer Set (Clients)-Speed 1.50 GHz-Resolution 1024768-RAM 512 MB or higher-Hard disk 40 GB or higherInternet ConnectionAutomatic voltage regulatorRouter or switche sLan cableToday, web applications are playing important roles in represent online business industry. We can see from online office supply, mobile showrooms management, electronic and other school facilities office are operated through online. There are online office supply websites which are most popular and bus and train ticket reservation related projects. Considering importance of online web business we designed Supply Inventory System where users can find products spare parts, latest school facilities in the office supply of University. Computerized methods are useful in reservation work accurate, reliable, efficient, and capable for a very systematic and fast access in item of the product, every ordering and purchasing product moldiness be versatile to the current trends and innovation in todays changes intechnology.

Om Heizer Om10 Ism 04

Chapter FORECASTING Discussion Questions 1.? Qualitative exercises structured subjective factors into the prognostic pose. Qualitative models ar useful when subjective factors atomic enumerate 18 important. When quantitative information be difficult to obtain, qualitative models may be admit. 2.? Approaches argon qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative is relatively subjective quantitative uses numeric models. 3.? Short-range (under 3 months), medium-range (3 months to 3 years), and long-range ( over 3 years). 4.? The steps that should be used to develop a pictureing system be (a)? unsex the purpose and use of the prospect (b)? Select the item or quantities that be to be directed (c)? Determine the time horizon of the forecast (d)? Select the quality of forecasting model to be used (e)? Gather the necessary selective information (f)? Validate the forecasting model (g)? Make the forecast (h)? Implement and label the results 5.? Any three of sales planning, produc tion planning and budgeting, cash budgeting, analyzing non-homogeneous operating plans. 6.? in that position is no mechanism for growth in these models they ar built exclusively from historical demand assesss. Such methods will unceasingly lag trends. .? Exp angiotensin-converting enzymential smoothing is a weighted travel amount where solely previous values are weighted with a set of weights that drop exp unitynti e real(prenominal)y. 8.? activated, MSE, and MAPE are common measures of forecast accuracy. To bechance the more accurate forecasting model, forecast with each tool for several gunpoints where the demand outcome is lastn, and take aim MSE, MAPE, or delirious for each. The smaller error show ups the better forecast. 9.? The Delphi technique involves (a)? tack a group of experts in such a manner as to preclude direct communication amidst identifiable members of the group (b)? assemblage the responses of each expert to the questions or problems of interest (c)? centermarizing these responses (d)? Providing each expert with the epitome of all responses (e)? Asking each expert to study the summary of the responses and answer again to the questions or problems of interest. (f)? Repeating steps (b) through with(predicate) (e) several time as necessary to obtain convergence in responses. If convergence has non been obtained by the end of the quadrupletth cycle, the responses at that time should probably be accepted and the process terminatedlittle summing upal convergence is believably if the process is continued. 0.? A time serial model predicts on the priming coat of the assumption that the future is a function of the past, whereas an associative model incorporates into the model the changeables of factors that might influence the quantity being forecast. 11.? A time series is a sequence of evenly spaced information points with the four components of trend, seasonality, cyclical, and hit-or-miss variation. 12.? When the sm oothing constant, (, is large (close to 1. 0), more weight is given to recent data when ( is unkept (close to 0. 0), more weight is given to past data. 13.? Seasonal inventions are of icy duration and repeat regularly.Cycles vary in length and regularity. Seasonal indices forego generic forecasts to be made specific to the month, workweek, etc. , of the application. 14.? exponential function function smoothing weighs all previous values with a set of weights that decline exponential functionly. It can wander a full weight on the most recent occlusive (with an of import of 1. 0). This, in final result, is the uninitiated approach, which places all its emphasis on move outcomes actual demand. 15.? Adaptive forecasting refers to computer observe of tracking signals and self- registration if a signal passes its present limit. 16.?Tracking signals alert the exploiter of a forecasting tool to periods in which the forecast was in large error. 17.? The correlation coefficie nt measures the degree to which the independent and dependent variables move together. A banish value would mean that as X increases, Y tends to fall. The variables move together, hardly move in opposite directions. 18.? Independent variable (x) is said to formulate variations in the dependent variable (y). 19.? Nearly every industry has seasonality. The seasonality moldiness be filtered out for good medium-range planning (of production and inventory) and performance evaluation. 20.? There are many examples. exact for raw materials and component parts such as steel or tires is a function of demand for goods such as automobiles. 21.? Obviously, as we go farther into the future, it becomes more difficult to make forecasts, and we must(prenominal)iness diminish our reliance on the forecasts. Ethical Dilemma This exercise, derived from an actual situation, deals as much with ethics as with forecasting. Here are a a couple of(prenominal) points to consider No one likes a system th ey dont understand, and most college presidents would feel uncomfortable with this one. It does offer the advantage of depoliticizing the funds al- location if used wisely and fairly.But to do so means all parties must wealthy person input to the process (such as smoothing constants) and all data take up to be open to everyone. The smoothing constants could be selected by an agreed-upon criteria (such as lowest emotional) or could be base on input from experts on the board as well as the college. Abuse of the system is tied to assigning of imports based on what results they yield, rather than what of imports make the most sense. Regression is open to outcry as well. Models can use many years of data yielding one result or few years yielding a pithly different forecast.Selection of associative variables can have a study impact on results as well. brisk Model Exercises* ready precedent 4. 1 piteous Averages 1.? What does the graph look like when n = 1? The forecast g raph mirrors the data graph but one period later. 2.? What happens to the graph as the outcome of periods in the moving honest increases? The forecast graph becomes shorter and smoother. 3.? What value for n minimizes the MAD for this data? n = 1 (a naive forecast) ACTIVE pose 4. 2 exponential function Smoothing 1.? What happens to the graph when alpha equals zero? The graph is a straight line.The forecast is the same in each period. 2.? What happens to the graph when alpha equals one? The forecast follows the same pattern as the demand (except for the offshoot forecast) but is offset by one period. This is a naive forecast. 3.? Generalize what happens to a forecast as alpha increases. As alpha increases the forecast is more sensitive to changes in demand. *Active Models 4. 1, 4. 2, 4. 3, and 4. 4 appear on our Web site, www. pearson highed. com/heizer. 4.? At what level of alpha is the mean absolute recreation (MAD) minimized? alpha = . 16 ACTIVE MODEL 4. 3 exponential Smooth ing with Trend Adjustment .? Scroll through different values for alpha and beta. Which smoothing constant appears to have the greater effect on the graph? alpha 2.? With beta set to zero, find the outmatch alpha and observe the MAD. Now find the best beta. Observe the MAD. Does the addition of a trend improve the forecast? alpha = . 11, MAD = 2. 59 beta above . 6 changes the MAD (by a little) to 2. 54. ACTIVE MODEL 4. 4 Trend Projections 1.? What is the annual trend in the data? 10. 54 2.? Use the scrollbars for the slope and hold back to determine the values that minimize the MAD. are these the same values that obsession yields?No, they are not the same values. For example, an intercept of 57. 81 with a slope of 9. 44 yields a MAD of 7. 17. End-of-Chapter Problems pic (b) weight down Week of Pints Used Moving Average alarming 31 360 family 7 389 381 ( . 1 = ? 38. 1 family 14 410 368 ( . 3 = 110. 4 September 21 381 374 ( . 6 = 224. 4 September 28 368 372. October 5 3 74 bode 372. 9 (c) heralding fault Week of Pints count flaw ( . 20 see August 31 360 360 0 0 360 September 7 389 360 29 5. 8 365. 8 September 14 410 365. 8 44. 2 8. 84 374. 64 September 21 381 374. 64 6. 36 1. 272 375. 12 September 28 368 375. 912 7. 912 1. 5824 374. 3296 October 5 374 374. 3296 . 3296 . 06592 374. 2636 The forecast is 374. 26. (d)? The three-year moving fair appears to give better results. pic pic Naive tracks the ups and downs best but lags the data by one period. exponential smoothing is probably better because it smoothes the data and does not have as much variation. TEACHING NOTE Notice how well exponential smoothing forecasts the naive. pic (c)? The banking industry has a great deal of seasonality in its processing requirements pic b) biyearly course Mileage Moving Average Error Error 1 3,000 2 4,000 3 3, cd 3, calciferol one hundred carbon 4 3,800 3,700 century century 5 3,700 3,600 hundred coke entireness s ascorbic acid 300 pic 4. 5? (c)? charge 2 year M. A. ith . 6 weight for most recent year. socio-economic class Mileage view Error Error 1 3,000 2 4,000 3 3,400 3,600 two hundred cc 4 3,800 3,640 160 160 5 3,700 3,640 60 60 420 Forecast for year 6 is 3,740 miles. pic 4. 5? (d) Forecast Error ( New category Mileage Forecast Error ( = . 50 Forecast 1 3,000 3,000 ?0 0 3,000 2 4,000 3,000 1,000 500 3,500 3 3,400 3,500 100 50 3,450 4 3,800 3,450 350 175 3,625 5 3,700 3,625 75 ? 38 3,663 Total 1,325 The forecast is 3,663 miles. 4. 6 Y Sales X Period X2 XY January 20 1 1 20 February 21 2 4 42 skirt 15 3 9 45 April 14 4 16 56 May 13 5 25 65 June 16 6 36 96 July 17 7 49 119 August 18 8 64 revenue September 20 9 81 180 October 20 10 100 200 November 21 11 121 231 declination 23 12 revenue 276 Sum 18 78 650 1,474 Average ? 18. 2 6. 5 (a) pic (b)? i? NaiveThe coming January = December = 23 ii? 3-month moving (20 + 21 + 23) /3 = 21. 33 iii? 6-month weighted (0. 1 ( 17) + (. 1 ( 18) + (0. 1 ( 20) + (0. 2 ( 20) + (0. 2 ( 21) + (0. 3 ( 23)/1. 0 = 20. 6 iv? Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0. 3 pic v? Trend? pic pic Forecast = 15. 73? +?. 38(13) = 20. 67, where following January is the 13th month. (c)? Only trend provides an equation that can extend beyond one month 4. 7? Present = Period (week) 6. a) So where pic )If the weights are 20, 15, 15, and 10, there will be no change in the forecast because these are the same relative weights as in part (a), i. e. , 20/60, 15/60, 15/60, and 10/60. c)If the weights are 0. 4, 0. 3, 0. 2, and 0. 1, past the forecast becomes 56. 3, or 56 patients. pic pic Temperature 2 day M. A. Error(Error)2 positive % Error 93 94 93 93. 5 0. 5 ? 0. 25 100(. 5/93) = 0. 54% 95 93. 5 1. 5 ? 2. 25 100(1. 5/95) = 1. 58% 96 94. 0 2. 0 ? 4. 00 100(2/96) = 2. 08% 88 95. 5 7. 56. 25 100(7. 5/88) = 8. 52% 90 92. 0 2. 0 ? 4. 00 100(2/90) = 2. 22% 13. 5 66. 75 14. 94% MAD = 13. 5/5 = 2. 7 (d)? MSE = 66. 75/5 = 13. 35 (e)? MAPE = 14. 94%/5 = 2. 99% 4. 9? (a, b) The computations for both the two- and three-month fairishs appear in the table the results appear in the figure below. pic (c)? MAD (two-month moving average) = . 750/10 = . 075 MAD (three-month moving average) = . 793/9 = . 088 Therefore, the two-month moving average seems to have performed better. pic (c)? The forecasts are about the same. pic 4. 12? t Day Actual Forecast contend beg 1 Monday 88 88 2 Tuesday 72 88 3 Wednesday 68 84 4 Thursday 48 80 5 Friday 72 ( Answer Ft = Ft1 + ((At1 Ft1) Let ( = . 25. Let Monday forecast demand = 88 F2 = 88 + . 25(88 88) = 88 + 0 = 88 F3 = 88 + . 25(72 88) = 88 4 = 84 F4 = 84 + . 25(68 84) = 84 4 = 80 F5 = 80 + . 25(48 80) = 80 8 = 72 4. 13? (a)? Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 6 Exponential commanding twelvemonth Demand Smoothing ( = 0. going 1 45 41 4. 0 2 50 41. 0 + 0. 6(4541) = 43. 4 6. 6 3 52 43. 4 + 0. 6(5043. 4) = 47. 4 4. 6 4 56 47. 4 + 0. 6(5247. 4) = 50. 2 5. 8 5 58 50. 2 + 0. 6(5650. 2) = 53. 7 4. 3 6 ? 53. 7 + 0. 6(5853. 7) = 56. 3 ( = 25. 3 MAD = 5. 06 Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 9 Exponential commanding stratum Demand Smoothing ( = 0. release 1 45 41 4. 0 2 50 41. 0 + 0. 9(4541) = 44. 6 5. 4 3 52 44. 6 + 0. 9(5044. 6 ) = 49. 5 2. 5 4 56 49. 5 + 0. 9(5249. 5) = 51. 8 4. 2 5 58 51. 8 + 0. 9(5651. 8) = 55. 6 2. 4 6 ? 55. 6 + 0. 9(5855. 6) = 57. 8 ( = 18. 5 MAD = 3. 7 (b)? 3-year moving average Three- socio-economic class Absolute Year Demand Moving Average Deviation 1 45 2 50 3 52 4 56 (45 + 50 + 52)/3 = 49 7 5 58 (50 + 52 + 56)/3 = 52. 7 5. 3 6 ? (52 + 56 + 58)/3 = 55. 3 ( = 12. 3 MAD = 6. 2 (c)? Trend bulge Absolute Year Demand Trend Projection Deviation 1 45 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 1 = 45. 8 0. 8 2 50 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 2 = 49. 0 1. 0 3 52 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 3 = 52. 2 0. 2 4 56 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 4 = 55. 4 0. 5 58 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 5 = 58. 6 0. 6 6 ? 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 6 = 61. 8 ( = 3. 2 MAD = 0. 64 pic X Y XY X2 1 45 45 1 2 50 100 4 3 52 156 9 4 56 224 16 5 58 290 25 Then (X = 15, (Y = 261, (XY = 815, (X2 = 55, pic= 3, pic= 52. 2 Therefore pic (d)? study the results of the forecasting methodologies for parts (a), (b), and (c). Forecast mannerology MAD Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 5. 06 Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 9 3. 7 3-year moving average 6. 2 Trend projection 0. 64 Based on a mean absolute deviation criterion, the trend projection is to be preferred over the exponential smoothing with ( = 0. 6, exponential smoothing with ( = 0. 9, or the 3-year moving average forecast methodologies. 4. 14 Method 1MAD (0. 20 + 0. 05 + 0. 05 + 0. 20)/4 = . 125 ( better MSE (0. 04 + 0. 0025 + 0. 0025 + 0. 04)/4 = . 021 Method 2MAD (0. 1 + 0. 20 + 0. 10 + 0. 11) / 4 = . 1275 MSE (0. 01 + 0. 04 + 0. 01 + 0. 0121) / 4 = . 018 ( better 4. 15 Forecast Three-Year Absolute Year Sales Moving Average Deviatio n 2005 450 2006 495 2007 518 2008 563 (450 + 495 + 518)/3 = 487. 7 75. 3 2009 584 (495 + 518 + 563)/3 = 525. 3 58. 7 2010 (518 + 563 + 584)/3 = 555. 0 ( = 134 MAD = 67 4. 16 Year Time Period X Sales Y X2 XY 2005 1 450 1 450 2006 2 495 4 990 2007 3 518 9 1554 2008 4 563 16 2252 2009 5 584 25 2920 ( = 2610 ( = 55 ( = 8166 pic pic Year Sales Forecast Trend Absolute Deviation 2005 450 454. 8 4. 8 2006 495 488. 4 6. 2007 518 522. 0 4. 0 2008 563 555. 6 7. 4 2009 584 589. 2 5. 2 2010 622. 8 ( = 28 MAD = 5. 6 4. 17 Forecast Exponential Absolute Year Sales Smoothing ( = 0. 6 Deviation 2005 450 410. 0 40. 2006 495 410 + 0. 6(450 410) = 434. 0 61. 0 2007 518 434 + 0. 6(495 434) = 470. 6 47. 4 2008 563 470. 6 + 0. 6(518 470. 6) = 499. 0 64. 0 2009 584 499 + 0. 6(563 499) = 537. 4 46. 6 2010 537. 4 + 0. 6(584 537. 4) = 565. 6 ( = 259 MAD = 51. 8 Forecast Exponential Absolute Year Sales Smoothing ( = 0. Deviation 2005 450 410. 0 40. 0 2006 495 410 + 0. 9(450 410) = 446. 0 49. 0 2007 518 446 + 0. 9(495 446) = 490. 1 27. 9 2008 563 490. 1 + 0. 9(518 490. 1) = 515. 2 47. 8 2009 584 515. 2 + 0. 9(563 515. 2) = 558. 2 25. 8 2010 558. 2 + 0. 9(584 558. 2) = 581. 4 ( = 190. 5 MAD = 38. 1 (Refer to Solved Problem 4. 1)For ( = 0. 3, absolute deviations for 20052009 are 40. 0, 73. 0, 74. 1, 96. 9, 88. 8, respectively. So the MAD = 372. 8/5 = 74. 6. pic Because it gives the lowest MAD, the smoothing constant of ( = 0. 9 gives the most accurate forecast. 4. 18? We claim to find the smoothing constant (. We know in normal that Ft = Ft1 + ((At1 Ft1) t = 2, 3, 4. Choose either t = 3 or t = 4 (t = 2 wont let us find ( because F2 = 50 = 50 + ((50 50) holds for any (). Lets pick t = 3. Then F3 = 48 = 50 + ((42 50) or 48 = 50 + 42( 50( or 2 = 8( So, . 25 = ( Now we can find F5 F5 = 50 + ((46 50)F5 = 50 + 46( 50( = 50 4( For ( = . 25, F5 = 50 4(. 25) = 49 The forecast for time pe riod 5 = 49 units. 4. 19? Trend adjusted exponential smoothing ( = 0. 1, ( = 0. 2 unadjusted Adjusted month Income Forecast Trend Forecast ErrorError2 February 70. 0 65. 0 0. 0 65 ? 5. 0 ? 25. 0 bound 68. 5 65. 5 0. 1 65. 6 ? 2. 9 ? 8. 4 April 64. 8 65. 9 0. 16 66. 05 ? 1. 2 ? 1. 6 May 71. 7 65. 92 0. 13 66. 06 ? 5. 6 ? 31. 9 June 71. 66. 62 0. 25 66. 87 ? 4. 4 ? 19. 7 July 72. 8 67. 31 0. 33 67. 64 ? 5. 2 ? 26. 6 August 68. 16 68. 60 24. 3 113. 2 MAD = 24. 3/6 = 4. 05, MSE = 113. 2/6 = 18. 87. channel that all numbers are rounded. Note To use POM for Windows to solve this problem, a period 0, which contains the initial forecast and initial trend, must be added. 4. 20? Trend adjusted exponential smoothing ( = 0. 1, ( = 0. 8 pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic 4. 23? Students must determine the naive forecast for the four months.The naive forecast for March is the February actual of 83, etc. (a) Actual Forecast Error % Error March h undred and one cxx 19 100 (19/101) = 18. 81% April ? 96 114 18 100 (18/96) ? = 18. 75% May ? 89 110 21 100 (21/89) ? = 23. 60% June 108 108 ? 0 100 (0/108) ? = 0% 58 61. 16% pic (b) Actual Naive Error % Error March 101 ? 83 18 100 (18/101) = 17. 82% April ? 96 101 ? 100 (5/96) ? = 5. 21% May ? 89 ? 96 ? 7 100 (7/89) ? =? 7. 87% June 108 ? 89 19 100 (19/108) = 17. 59% 49 48. 49% pic Naive outperforms management. (c)? MAD for the managers technique is 14. 5, while MAD for the naive forecast is only 12. 25. MAPEs are 15. 29% and 12. 12%, respectively. So the naive method is better. 4. 24? (a)? Graph of demand The observations obviously do not form a straight line but do tend to cluster about a straight line over the range shown. (b)? least- self-coloureds regression pic Assume Appearances X Demand Y X2 Y2 XY 3 3 9 9 9 4 6 16 36 24 7 7 49 49 49 6 5 36 25 30 8 10 64 100 80 5 7 25 49 35 9 ? (X = 33, (Y = 38, (XY = 227, (X2 = 199, pic= 5. 5, pic= 6. 33. Therefore pic The following figure shows both the data and the resulting equation pic (c) If there are nine performances by Stone tabernacle Pilots, the estimated sales are (d) R = . 82 is the correlation coefficient, and R2 = . 68 means 68% of the variation in sales can be explained by TV appearances. 4. 25? Number of Accidents Month (y) x xy x2 January 30 1 30 1 February 40 2 80 4 March 60 3 180 9 April 90 4 360 16 ? Totals 220 pic The regression line is y = 5 + 20x. The forecast for May (x = 5) is y = 5 + 20(5) = 105. 4. 26 Season Year1 Year2 Average Average Seasonal Year3 Demand Demand Year1(Year2 Season Index Demand Demand Demand perch 200 250 225. 0 250 0. 90 270 Winter 350 300 325. 250 1. 30 390 throttle 150 165 157. 5 250 0. 63 189 Summer 300 285 292. 5 250 1. 17 351 4. 27 Winter Spring Summer hark back 2006 1,400 1,500 1,000 600 2007 1,200 1,400 2,100 750 2008 1,000 1,600 2,000 650 2009 900 1,500 1 ,900 500 4,500 6,000 7,000 2,500 4. 28 Average Average Quarterly Seasonal Quarter 2007 2008 2009 Demand Demand Index Winter 73 65 89 75. 67 106. 67 0. 709 Spring 104 82 146 110. 67 106. 67 1. 037 Summer 168 124 205 165. 67 106. 67 1. 553 Fall 74 52 98 74. 67 106. 67 0. 700 4. 29? 2011 is 25 years beyond 1986. Therefore, the 2011 quarter numbers are 101 through 104. (5) (2) (3) (4) Adjusted (1) Quarter Forecast Seasonal Forecast Quarter Number (77 + . 3Q) Factor (3) ( (4) Winter 101 120. 43 . 8 96. 344 Spring 102 120. 86 1. 1 132. 946 Summer 103 121. 29 1. 4 169. 806 Fall 104 121. 72 . 7 85. 204 4. 30? tending(p) Y = 36 + 4. 3X (a) Y = 36 + 4. 3(70) = 337 (b) Y = 36 + 4. 3(80) = 380 (c) Y = 36 + 4. 3(90) = 423 4. 31 4. 33? (a)? See the table below. For next year (x = 6), the number of transistors (in millions) is forecasted as y = 126 + 18(6) = 126 + 108 = 234. Then y = a + bx, where y = number sold, x = footing, and 4. 32? a) x y xy x 2 16 330 5,280 256 12 270 3,240 144 18 380 6,840 324 14 300 4,200 196 60 1,280 19,560 920 So at x = 2. 80, y = 1,454. 6 277. 6($2. 80) = 677. 32. Now round to the nearest integer Answer 677 lattes. pic (b)? If the forecast is for 20 guests, the bar sales forecast is 50 + 18(20) = $410. Each guest accounts for an supererogatory $18 in bar sales. Table for Problem 4. 33 Year Transistors (x) (y) xy x2 126 + 18x Error Error2 % Error ? 1 140 ? 140 ? 1 144 4 ? 16 100 (4/140)? = 2. 86% ? 2 160 ? 320 ? 4 162 2 4 100 (2/160)? = 1. 25% ? 3 190 ? 570 ? 9 180 10 100 100 (10/190) = 5. 26% ? 4 200 ? 800 16 198 ? 2 4 100 (2/200) = 1. 00% ? 210 1,050 25 216 6 ? 36 100 (6/210)? = 2. 86% Totals 15 900 2,800 (b)? MSE = 160/5 = 32 (c)? MAPE = 13. 23%/5 = 2. 65% 4. 34? Y = 7. 5 + 3. 5X1 + 4. 5X2 + 2. 5X3 (a)? 28 (b)? 43 (c)? 58 4. 35? (a)? pic = 13,473 + 37. 65(1860) = 83,502 (b)? The predicted selling price is $83,502, but this is the average pri ce for a house of this coat. There are other factors besides square footage that will impact the selling price of a house. If such a house sold for $95,000, then these other factors could be contributing to the extra value. (c)?Some other quantitative variables would be age of the house, number of bedrooms, size of the lot, and size of the garage, etc. (d)? Coefficient of determination = (0. 63)2 = 0. 397. This means that only about 39. 7% of the variability in the sales price of a house is explained by this regression model that only includes square footage as the explanatory variable. 4. 36? (a)? Given Y = 90 + 48. 5X1 + 0. 4X2 where pic If Number of days on the track ( X1 = 5 and distance traveled ( X2 = 300 then Y = 90 + 48. 5 ( 5 + 0. 4 ( 300 = 90 + 242. 5 + 120 = 452. 5 Therefore, the expected cost of the trip is $452. 50. (b)? The reimbursement request is much higher than predicted by the model. This request should probably be questioned by the accountant. (c)?A number of other variables should be included, such as 1.? the type of travel (air or car) 2.? conference fees, if any 3.? cost of entertaining customers 4.? other transportation costscab, limousine, special tolls, or parking In addition, the correlation coefficient of 0. 68 is not exceptionally high. It indicates that the model explains approximately 46% of the overall variation in trip cost. This correlation coefficient would suggest that the model is not a particularly good one. 4. 37? (a, b) Period Demand Forecast Error cartroad sum error 1 20 20 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 2 21 20 1. 00 1. 0 1. 00 3 28 20. 5 7. 50 8. 50 7. 50 4 37 24. 25 12. 75 21. 25 12. 75 5 25 30. 63 5. 63 15. 63 5. 63 6 29 27. 81 1. 19 16. 82 1. 19 7 36 28. 41 7. 59 24. 41 7. 59 8 22 32. 20 10. 20 14. 21 10. 20 9 25 27. 11 2. 10 12. 10 2. 10 10 28 26. 05 1. 95 14. 05 1. 95 MADpic5. 00 cumulative error = 14. 05 MAD = 5? Tracking = 14. 05/5 ( 2. 82 4. 38? (a)? least squares equation Y = 0. 158 + 0. 1308X (b)? Y = 0. 158 + 0. 1308(22) = 2. 719 million (c)? coefficient of correlation = r = 0. 966 coefficient of determination = r2 = 0. 934 4. 39 Year X Patients Y X2 Y2 XY ? 1 ? 36 1 ? 1,296 36 ? 2 ? 33 ? 1,089 66 ? 3 ? 40 9 ? 1,600 ? 120 ? 4 ? 41 ? 16 ? 1,681 ? 164 ? 5 ? 40 ? 25 ? 1,600 ? 200 ? 6 ? 55 ? 36 ? 3,025 ? 330 ? 7 ? 60 ? 49 ? 3,600 ? 420 ? 8 ? 54 ? 64 ? 2,916 ? 432 ? 9 ? 58 ? 81 ? 3,364 ? 522 10 ? 61 100 ? 3,721 ? 10 55 478 X Y Forecast Deviation Deviation ? 1 36 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 1 = 33. 1 ? 2. 9 2. 9 ? 2 33 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 2 = 36. 3 3. 3 3. 3 ? 3 40 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 3 = 39. 6 ? 0. 4 0. 4 ? 4 41 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 4 = 42. 9 1. 9 1. 9 ? 5 40 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 5 = 46. 2 6. 2 6. 2 ? 6 55 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 6 = 49. 4 ? 5. 6 5. 6 ? 7 60 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 7 = 52. 7 ? 7. 3 7. 3 ? 54 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 8 = 56. 1 2. 1 2. 1 ? 9 58 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 9 = 59. 3 1. 3 1. 3 10 61 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( 10 = 62. 6 1. 6 1. 6 ( = 32. 6 MAD = 3. 26 The MAD is 3. 26this is approximately 7% of the average number of patients and 10% of the minimum number of patients. We also see absolute deviations, for years 5, 6, and 7 in the range 5. 67. 3.The comparison of the MAD with the average and minimum number of patients and the comparatively large deviations during the middle years indicate that the forecast model is not exceptionally accurate. It is more useful for predicting general trends than the actual number of patients to be seen in a specific year. 4. 40 Crime Patients Year Rate X Y X2 Y2 XY ? 1 ? 58. 3 ? 36 ? 3,398. 9 ? 1,296 ? 2,098. 8 ? 2 ? 61. 1 ? 33 ? 3,733. 2 ? 1,089 ? 2,016. 3 ? 3 ? 73. ? 40 ? 5,387. 6 ? 1,600 ? 2,936. 0 ? 4 ? 75. 7 ? 41 ? 5,730. 5 ? 1,681 ? 3,103. 7 ? 5 ? 81. 1 ? 40 ? 6,577. 2 ? 1,600 ? 3,244. 0 ? 6 ? 89. 0 ? 55 ? 7,921. 0 ? 3,025 ? 4,895. 0 ? 7 101. 1 ? 60 10,221. 2 ? 3,600 ? 6,066. 0 ? 8 ? 94. 8 ? 54 ? 8,987. 0 ? 2,916 ? 5,119. 2 ? 9 103. 3 ? 58 10,670. 9 ? 3,364 ? 5,991. 4 10 116. 2 ? 61 13,502. 4 ? 3,721 ? 7,088. 2 Column 854. 478 Totals months) (Millions) (1,000,000s) Year (X) (Y) X2 Y2 XY ? 1 ? 7 1. 5 ? 49 ? 2. 25 10. 5 ? 2 ? 2 1. 0 4 ? 1. 00 ? 2. 0 ? 3 ? 6 1. 3 ? 36 ? 1. 69 ? 7. 8 ? 4 ? 4 1. 5 ? 16 ? 2. 25 ? 6. 0 ? 5 14 2. 5 196 ? 6. 25 35. 0 ? 6 15 2. 7 225 ? 7. 9 40. 5 ? 7 16 2. 4 256 ? 5. 76 38. 4 ? 8 12 2. 0 144 ? 4. 00 24. 0 ? 9 14 2. 7 196 ? 7. 29 37. 8 10 20 4. 4 400 19. 36 88. 0 11 15 3. 4 225 11. 56 51. 0 12 ? 7 1. 7 ? 49 ? 2. 89 11. 9 Given Y = a + bX where pic and (X = 132, (Y = 27. 1, (XY = 352. 9, (X2 = 1796, (Y2 = 71. 59, pic = 11, pic= 2. 26. Then pic andY = 0. 511 + 0. 159X (c)?Given a tourist population of 10,000,000, the model predicts a ridership of Y = 0. 511 + 0. 159 ( 10 = 2. 101, or 2,101,000 persons. (d)? If there are no tourists at all, the model predicts a ridership of 0. 511, or 511,000 persons. atomic number 53 would not place much confidence in this forecast, however, because the number of tourists (zero) is outside the range of data used to develop the model. (e)? The prototype error of the estimate is given by (f)? The correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination are given by pic 4. 42? (a)? This problem gives students a chance to accept a realistic problem in business, i. e. , not enough data to make a good forecast.As can be seen in the successive figure, the data contains both seasonal and trend factors. pic Averaging methods are not appropriate with trend, seasonal, or other patterns in the data. Moving averages smooth out seasonality. Exponential smoothing can forecast January next year, but not farther. Because seasonality is strong, a naive model that students create on their own might be best. (b) One model might be Ft+1 = At11 That is forecastnext period = actualone year earlier to account for seasonality. But this ignores the trend. One very good approach would be to calculate the increase from each month last year to each month this year, sum all 12 increases, and divide by 12.The forecast for next year would equal the value for the same month this year plus the average increase over the 12 months of last year. (c) Using this model, the January forecast for next year becomes pic where 148 = total monthly increases from last year to this year. The forecasts for each of the months of next year then become Jan. 29 July. 56 Feb. 26 Aug. 53 Mar. 32 Sep. 45 Apr. 35 Oct. 35 May. 42 Nov. 38 Jun. 50 Dec. 29 some(prenominal) history and forecast for the next year are shown in the accompany figure pic 4. 3? (a) and (b) See the following table Actual smooth Smoothed Week appraise Value Forecast Value Forecast t A(t) Ft (( = 0. 2) Error Ft (( = 0. 6)Error 1 50 +50. 0 ? +0. 0 +50. 0 ? +0. 0 2 35 +50. 0 15. 0 +50. 0 15. 0 3 25 +47. 0 22. 0 +41. 0 16. 0 4 40 +42. 6 ? 2. 6 +31. 4 ? +8. 6 5 45 +42. 1 ? 2. 9 +36. 6 ? +8. 6 35 +42. 7 ? 7. 7 +41. 6 ? 6. 6 7 20 +41. 1 21. 1 +37. 6 17. 6 8 30 +36 . 9 ? 6. 9 +27. 1 ? +2. 9 9 35 +35. 5 ? 0. 5 +28. 8 ? +6. 2 10 20 +35. 4 15. 4 +32. 5 12. 5 11 15 +32. 3 17. 3 +25. 0 10. 0 12 40 +28. 9 +11. 1 +19. 0 +21. 0 13 55 +31. 1 +23. 9 +31. 6 +23. 4 14 35 +35. 9 ? 0. 9 +45. 6 10. 6 15 25 +36. 7 10. 7 +39. 3 14. 3 16 55 +33. 6 +21. 4 +30. 7 +24. 3 17 55 +37. 8 +17. 2 +45. 3 ? +9. 7 18 40 +41. 3 ? 1. 3 +51. 1 11. 1 19 35 +41. 0 ? 6. 0 +44. 4 ? 9. 4 20 60 +39. 8 +20. 2 +38. 8 +21. 2 21 75 +43. 9 +31. 1 +51. 5 +23. 5 22 50 +50. 1 ? 0. 1 +65. 6 15. 23 40 +50. 1 10. 1 +56. 2 16. 2 24 65 +48. 1 +16. 9 +46. 5 +18. 5 25 +51. 4 +57. 6 MAD = 11. 8 MAD = 13. 45 (c)? Students should note how stable the smoothed values are for ( = 0. 2. When compared to actual week 25 calls of 85, the smoothing constant, ( = 0. 6, appears to do a slightly better job. On the founding of the standard error of the estimate and the MAD, the 0. 2 constant is better. However, other smoothing constants need to be examined. 4. 4 Week Actual Value Smoothed Value Trend Estimate Forecast Forecast t At Ft (( = 0. 3) Tt (( = 0. 2) FITt Error ? 1 50. 000 50. 000 ? 0. 000 50. 000 0. 000 ? 2 35. 000 50. 000 ? 0. 000 50. 000 15. 000 ? 3 25. 000 45. 500 0. 900 44. 600 19. 600 ? 4 40. 000 38. 720 2. 076 36. 644 3. 56 ? 5 45. 000 37. 651 1. 875 35. 776 9. 224 ? 6 35. 000 38. 543 1. 321 37. 222 ? 2. 222 ? 7 20. 000 36. 555 1. 455 35. 101 15. 101 ? 8 30. 000 30. 571 2. 361 28. 210 1. 790 ? 9 35. 000 28. 747 2. 253 26. 494 8. 506 10 20. 000 29. 046 1. 743 27. 03 ? 7. 303 11 15. 000 25. 112 2. 181 22. 931 ? 7. 931 12 40. 000 20. 552 2. 657 17. 895 ? 22. 105 13 55. 000 24. 526 1. 331 23. 196 ? 31. 804 14 35. 000 32. 737 ? 0. 578 33. 315 1. 685 15 25. 000 33. 820 ? 0. 679 34. 499 ? 9. 499 16 55. 000 31. 649 ? 0. 109 31. 58 ? 23. 242 17 55. 000 38. 731 ? 1. 503 40. 234 ? 14. 766 18 40. 000 44. 664 ? 2. 389 47. 053 ? 7. 053 19 35. 000 44. 937 ? 1. 966 46. 903 11. 903 20 60. 000 43. 332 ? 1. 252 44. 584 ? 15. 416 21 75. 000 49. 209 ? 2. 177 51. 386 ? 23. 614 22 50. 000 58. 470 ? 3. 94 62. 064 12. 064 23 40. 000 58. 445 ? 2. 870 61. 315 21. 315 24 65. 000 54. 920 ? 1. 591 56. 511 8. 489 25 59. 058 ? 2. 100 61. 158 To evaluate the trend adjusted exponential smoothing model, actual week 25 calls are compared to the forecasted value. The model appears to be producing a forecast approximately mid-range between that given by simple exponential smoothing using ( = 0. 2 and ( = 0. 6.Trend adjustment does not appear to give any significant improvement. 4. 45 Month At Ft At Ft (At Ft) May 100 100 0 0 June 80 104 24 24 July 110 99 11 11 August 115 101 14 14 September 105 104 1 1 October 110 104 6 6 November 125 105 20 20 December 120 109 11 11 Sum 87 Sum 39 4. 46 (a) X Y X2 Y2 XY ? 421 ? 2. 90 ? 177241 8. 41 ? 1220. 9 ? 377 ? 2. 93 ? 142129 8. 58 ? 1104. 6 ? 585 ? 3. 00 ? 342225 9. 00 ? 1755. 0 ? 690 ? 3. 45 ? 476100 ? 11. 90 ? 2380. 5 ? 608 ? 3. 66 ? 369664 ? 1 3. 40 ? 2225. 3 ? 390 ? 2. 88 ? 52100 8. 29 ? 1123. 2 ? 415 ? 2. 15 ? 172225 4. 62 892. 3 ? 481 ? 2. 53 ? 231361 6. 40 ? 1216. 9 ? 729 ? 3. 22 ? 531441 ? 10. 37 ? 2347. 4 ? 501 ? 1. 99 ? 251001 3. 96 997. 0 ? 613 ? 2. 75 ? 375769 7. 56 ? 1685. 8 ? 709 ? 3. 90 ? 502681 ? 15. 21 ? 2765. 1 ? 366 ? 1. 60 ? 133956 2. 56 585. 6 Column 6885 36. 6 totals January 400 February 380 400 20. 0 March 410 398 12. 0 April 375 399. 2 396. 67 24. 2 21. 67 May 405 396. 8 388. 33 8. 22 16. 67 MAD = 16. 11 19. 17 (d)Note that Amit has more forecast observations, while Barbaras moving average does not start until month 4. Also note that the MAD for Amit is an average of 4 numbers, while Barbaras is only 2. Amits MAD for exponential smoothing (16. 1) is lower than that of Barbaras moving average (19. 17). So his forecast seems to be better. 4. 48? (a) Quarter Contracts X Sales Y X2 Y2 XY 1 ? 153 ? 8 ? 23,409 ? 64 ? 1,224 2 ? 172 10 ? 29,584 100 ? 1,720 3 ? 197 15 ? 38,809 225 ? 2,955 4 ? 178 ? 9 ? 31,684 ? 81 ? 1,602 5 ? 185 12 ? 34,225 144 ? 2,220 6 ? 199 13 ? 39,601 169 ? 2,587 7 ? 205 12 ? 42,025 144 ? ,460 8 ? 226 16 ? 51,076 256 ? 3,616 Totals 1,515 95 b = (18384 8 ( 189. 375 ( 11. 875)/(290,413 8 ( 189. 375 ( 189. 375) = 0. 1121 a = 11. 875 0. 1121 ( 189. 375 = 9. 3495 Sales ( y) = 9. 349 + 0. 1121 (Contracts) (b) pic 4. 49? (a) Method ( Exponential Smoothing 0. 6 = ( Year Deposits (Y) Forecast Error Error2 1 ? 0. 25 0. 25 0. 00 ? 0. 00 2 ? . 24 0. 25 0. 01 ? 0. 0001 3 ? 0. 24 0. 244 0. 004 ? 0. 0000 4 ? 0. 26 0. 241 0. 018 ? 0. 0003 5 ? 0. 25 0. 252 0. 002 ? 0. 00 6 ? 0. 30 0. 251 0. 048 ? 0. 0023 7 ? 0. 31 0. 280 0. 029 ? 0. 0008 8 ? 0. 32 0. 298 0. 021 ? 0. 0004 9 ? 0. 24 0. 311 0. 071 ? 0. 0051 10 ? 0. 26 0. 68 0. 008 ? 0. 0000 11 ? 0. 25 0. 263 0. 013 ? 0. 0002 12 ? 0. 33 0. 255 0. 074 ? 0. 0055 13 ? 0. 50 0. 300 0. 199 ? 0. 0399 14 ? 0. 95 0. 420 0. 529 ? 0. 2808 15 ? 1. 70 0. 738 0. 961 ? 0. 925 16 ? 2. 30 1. 315 0. 984 ? 0. 9698 17 ? 2. 80 1. 906 0. 893 ? 0. 7990 18 ? 2. 80 2. 442 0. 357 ? 0. 278 19 ? 2. 70 2. 656 0. 043 ? 0. 0018 20 ? 3. 90 2. 682 1. 217 ? 1. 4816 21 ? 4. 90 3. 413 1. 486 ? 2. 2108 22 ? 5. 30 4. 305 0. 994 ? 0. 9895 23 ? 6. 20 4. 90 1. 297 ? 1. 6845 24 ? 4. 10 5. 680 1. 580 ? 2. 499 25 ? 4. 50 4. 732 0. 232 ? 0. 0540 26 ? 6. 10 4. 592 1. 507 ? 2. 2712 27 ? 7. 0 5. 497 2. 202 ? 4. 8524 28 10. 10 6. 818 3. 281 10. 7658 29 15. 20 8. 787 6. 412 41. 1195 (Continued) 4. 49? (a)? (Continued) Method ( Exponential Smoothing 0. 6 = ( Year Deposits (Y) Forecast Error Error2 30 ? 18. 10 12. 6350 5. 46498 29. 8660 31 ? 24. 10 15. 9140 8. 19 67. 01 32 ? 25. 0 20. 8256 4. 774 22. 7949 33 ? 30. 30 23. 69 6. 60976 43. 69 34 ? 36. 00 27. 6561 8. 34390 69. 62 35 ? 31. 10 32. 6624 1. 56244 2. 44121 36 ? 31. 70 31. 72 0. 024975 0. 000624 37 ? 38. 50 31. 71 6. 79 ? 46. 1042 38 ? 47. 90 35. 784 12. 116 146. 79 8 39 ? 49. 10 43. 0536 6. 046 36. 56 40 ? 55. 80 46. 814 9. 11856 83. 1481 41 ? 70. 10 52. 1526 17. 9474 322. 11 42 ? 70. 90 62. 9210 7. 97897 63. 66 43 ? 79. 10 67. 7084 11. 3916 129. 768 44 ? 94. 00 74. 5434 19. 4566 378. 561 TOTALS 787. 30 150. 3 1,513. 22 AVERAGE 17. 8932 3. 416 34. 39 (MAD) (MSE) Next period forecast = 86. 2173 Standard error = 6. 07519 Method ( Linear Regression (Trend Analysis) Year Period (X) Deposits (Y) Forecast Error2 ? 1 ? 1 0. 25 17. 330 309. 061 ? 2 ? 2 0. 24 15. 692 253. 823 ? 3 ? 3 0. 24 14. 054 204. 31 ? 4 ? 4 0. 26 12. 415 160. 662 ? 5 ? 5 0. 25 10. 777 121. 594 ? 6 ? 6 0. 30 ? 9. 1387 89. 0883 ? 7 ? 7 0. 31 ? 7. 50 61. 0019 ? 8 ? 8 0. 32 ? 5. 8621 38. 2181 ? ? 9 0. 24 ? 4. 2238 19. 9254 10 10 0. 26 ? 2. 5855 8. 09681 11 11 0. 25 ? 0. 947 1. 43328 12 12 0. 33 ? 0. 691098 0. 130392 13 13 0. 50 ? 2. 329 3. 34667 14 14 0. 95 ? 3. 96769 9. 10642 15 15 1. 70 ? 5. 60598 15. 2567 16 16 2. 30 ? 7. 24427 24. 445 8 17 17 2. 0 ? 8. 88257 36. 9976 18 18 2. 80 ? 10. 52 59. 6117 19 19 2. 70 ? 12. 1592 89. 4756 20 20 3. 90 ? 13. 7974 97. 9594 21 21 4. 90 ? 15. 4357 111. 0 22 22 5. 30 ? 17. 0740 138. 628 23 23 6. 20 ? 18. 7123 156. 558 24 24 4. 10 ? 20. 35 264. 083 25 25 4. 50 ? 21. 99 305. 62 26 26 6. 10 ? 23. 6272 307. 203 27 27 7. 70 ? 25. 2655 308. 547 28 28 10. 10 ? 26. 9038 282. 367 29 29 15. 20 ? 28. 5421 178. 011 30 30 18. 10 ? 30. 18 145. 936 31 31 24. 10 ? 31. 8187 59. 58 32 32 25. 60 ? 33. 46 61. 73 33 33 30. 30 ? 35. 0953 22. 9945 34 34 36. 0 ? 36. 7336 0. 5381 35 35 31. 10 ? 38. 3718 52. 8798 36 36 31. 70 ? 40. 01 69. 0585 37 37 38. 50 ? 41. 6484 9. 91266 38 38 47. 90 ? 43. 2867 21. 2823 39 39 49. 10 ? 44. 9250 17. 43 40 40 55. 80 ? 46. 5633 ? ? 85. 3163 41 41 70. 10 ? 48. 2016 ? 479. 54 42 42 70. 90 ? 49. 84 ? 443. 28 43 43 79. 10 ? 51. 4782 ? 762. 964 44 44 94. 00 ? 53. 1165 1,671. 46 TOTALS 990. 00 787. 30 7,559. 95 AVERAGE 22. 50 17. 893 171. 817 (MSE) Method ( Least squaresSimple Regression on GSP a b 17. 636 13. 936 Coefficients GSP Deposits Year (X) (Y) Forecast Error Error2 ? 1 0. 40 ? 0. 25 12. 198 ? 12. 4482 ? 154. 957 ? 2 0. 40 ? 0. 24 12. 198 ? 12. 4382 ? 154. 71 ? 3 0. 50 ? 0. 24 10. 839 ? 11. 0788 ? 122. 740 ? 4 0. 70 ? 0. 26 8. 12 8. 38 70. 226 ? 5 0. 90 ? 0. 25 5. 4014 5. 65137 31. 94 ? 6 1. 00 ? 0. 30 4. 0420 4. 342 18. 8530 ? 7 1. 40 ? 0. 31 ? 1. 39545 1. 08545 1. 17820 ? 8 1. 70 ? 0. 32 ? 5. 47354 5. 5354 26. 56 ? 9 1. 30 ? 0. 24 ? 0. 036086 0. 203914 0. 041581 10 1. 20 ? 0. 26 1. 3233 1. 58328 2. 50676 11 1. 10 ? 0. 25 2. 6826 2. 93264 8. 60038 12 0. 90 ? 0. 33 5. 4014 5. 73137 32. 8486 13 1. 20 ? 0. 50 1. 3233 1. 82328 3. 32434 14 1. 20 ? 0. 95 1. 3233 2. 27328 5. 16779 15 1. 20 ? 1. 70 1. 3233 3. 02328 9. 14020 16 1. 60 ? 2. 30 ? 4. 11418 1. 81418 3. 9124 17 1. 50 ? 2. 80 ? 2. 75481 0. 045186 0. 002042 18 1. 60 ? 2. 80 ? 4. 11418 1. 31418 1. 727 19 1. 70 ? 2. 70 ? 5. 47354 2. 77354 7. 69253 20 1. 90 ? 3. 90 ? 8. 19227 4. 29227 18. 4236 21 1. 90 ? 4. 90 ? 8. 19227 3. 29227 10. 8390 22 2. 30 ? 5. 30 13. 6297 8. 32972 69. 3843 23 2. 50 ? 6. 20 16. 3484 ? 10. 1484 ? 102. 991 24 2. 80 ? 4. 10 20. 4265 ? 16. 3265 ? 266. 56 25 2. 90 ? 4. 50 21. 79 ? 17. 29 ? 298. 80 26 3. 40 ? 6. 10 28. 5827 ? 22. 4827 ? 505. 473 27 3. 80 ? 7. 70 34. 02 ? 26. 32 ? 692. 752 28 4. 10 10. 10 38. 0983 ? 27. 9983 ? 783. 90 29 4. 00 15. 20 36. 74 ? 21. 54 ? 463. 924 30 4. 00 18. 10 36. 74 ? 18. 64 ? 347. 41 31 3. 90 24. 10 35. 3795 ? 11. 2795 ? 127. 228 32 3. 80 25. 60 34. 02 8. 42018 70. 8994 33 3. 0 30. 30 34. 02 3. 72018 13. 8397 34 3. 70 36. 00 32. 66 3. 33918 11. 15 35 4. 10 31. 10 38. 0983 6. 99827 48. 9757 36 4. 10 31. 70 38. 0983 6. 39827 ? 40. 9378 37 4. 00 38. 50 36. 74 1. 76 3. 10146 38 4. 50 47. 90 43. 5357 4. 36428 19. 05 39 4. 60 49. 10 44. 8951 4. 20491 17. 6813 40 4. 50 55. 80 43. 5357 ? 12. 2643 ? 150. 412 41 4. 60 70. 10 44. 951 ? 25. 20 ? 635. 288 42 4. 60 70. 90 44. 8951 ? 26. 00 ? 676. 256 43 4. 70 79. 10 46. 2544 ? 32. 8456 1,078. 83 44 5. 00 94. 00 50. 3325 ? 43. 6675 1,906. 85 TOTALS 451. 223 9,016. 45 AVERAGE ? 10. 2551 ? 204. 92 ? (MAD) ? (MSE) Given that one wishes to develop a five-year forecast, trend analysis is the appropriate choice. Measures of error and goodness-of-fit are really irrelevant.Exponential smoothing provides a forecast only of deposits for the next yearand frankincense does not address the five-year forecast problem. In order to use the regression model based upon GSP, one must first develop a model to forecast GSP, and then use the forecast of GSP in the model to forecast deposits. This requires the development of two modelsone of which (the model for GSP) must be based solely on time as the independent variable (time is the only other variable we are given). (b)? One could make a case for exc lusion of the older data. Were we to exclude data from roughly the first 25 years, the forecasts for the later year